Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jul 12, 2022

The Jays start their final homestand leading into the All-Star break on Tuesday by hosting the Phillies, who will be missing one of the biggest stars in baseball and a couple of other regulars.

Philadelphia
87-75
AT
July 12, 2022, 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
Toronto
92-70
Runline +1.5 -114
Moneyline +167
Over / Under o +9.5

13%

Betting Action

87%

Runline -1.5 -106
Moneyline -201
Over / Under u +9.5

13%

Betting Action

87%

The Jays are heavy favourites on the MLB odds.

Phillies vs. Jays Betting Analysis

While Tuesday is the first meeting of the season between the Phillies and Jays and they don’t play in the regular season often being in different leagues, the franchises actually know each other pretty well because their spring training homes on the Gulf Coast of Florida are less than five miles apart so they meet in spring training games often. Last year, they played three regular-season games in Dunedin and the Blue Jays won two. Toronto last visited Philadelphia in 2020.

It’s as good a time as any for the Jays to face the Phillies because they are without two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper, who was putting up MVP-calibre numbers again before fracturing his thumb on June 25. That required surgery and Harper is out several weeks. He says he will return by the end of the season and if the Phillies are in playoff contention (good chance), he probably will. If they aren’t, though, there’s really no reason to bring Harper back.

Once again, we have to remind when new teams visit Toronto that some players may not make the trip if they are unvaccinated for COVID. Reports are the Phillies will be without All-Star catcher JT Realmuto, third baseman Alec Bohm and two of their best starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson, although they wouldn’t have gone in this series regardless.

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia had two players named to the NL All-Star team in outfielders/DHs Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but as mentioned above Harper is hurt so he will need to be replaced. The Phillies fired former Yankees World Series-winning manager Joe Girardi in early June and replaced him with bench coach Rob Thomson, an Ontario native. The team has played much better since, and Thomson is making a case for the full-time gig. Philly won’t win the AL East Division but should stay in the Wild-Card chase. Second baseman Jean Segura has been out weeks with a fractured finger and is still weeks away. Like the Jays, the Phillies have a few starting pitchers on injured reserve so they are using a spot starter in Andrew Bellatti (1-3, 3.14). The 30-year-old has never started in the majors before, so he won’t be out there long. Bellatti has allowed just one run over his past eight relief appearances, but none of those were longer than one inning.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto has four players headed to next week’s All-Star Game in first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and catcher Alejandro Kirk (both starting for the AL), and outfielder George Springer and starting pitcher Alek Manoah. A return home can’t come too soon for the Jays after they were swept four games in Seattle over the weekend, scoring 11 total runs. It’s either going to be Kevin Gausman or Jose Berrios on the mound for the Jays. Berrios (6-4, 5.44) comes off a no-decision at the A’s, allowing one run and four hits over six innings. The 28-year-old generally has been much better at home, going 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA at Rogers Centre. Nick Castellanos has seen Berrios more than any Phillies batter and is 6-for-16 with a homer. Gausman (6-6, 2.86) had his last start skipped because of a bone bruise on his ankle but is hoping to go tonight. Castellanos is 6-for-21 with two doubles and two homers off Gausman. We will have to wait and see on the pitcher but think Toronto wins either way.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Phillies vs. Blue Jays?

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