Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Betting Odds, Picks: San Diego looking to lock down top NL wild-card spot
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Kevin Tompkins
It’s a National League West showdown on Thursday as the red-hot San Diego Padres (88-70) stroll into Chavez Ravine to meet up with the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers (97-61).
San Diego has won 14 of their last 17 games to vault ahead of the Chicago Cubs for top spot in the National League Wild Card race and are looking to secure their spot in the playoffs this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have won seven of their last nine games and just got Shohei Ohtani back from the injured list. LA has got some competition at the top of the National League this postseason with the Milwaukee Brewers looking to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, as the Brew Crew are two games up on the Dodgers.
Before Thursday’s first pitch between the Padres and Dodgers, let’s run down the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.
L.A. is a -175 favourite on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
With both teams in solid form entering this game, it’s going to come down to pitching.
Both teams are sending out veterans with depressed ERAs, and additionally, the pair are still playing for something. So there’s incentive to pitch like it’s the playoffs.
Because of that, the under is most definitely in play. As is the Dodgers moneyline, where they are a sizeable favourite.
San Diego Padres
With four games left to go, the Padres, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are battling for three Wild Card spots in a tightly-packed race that has the Padres one game up on the Cubs and Phillies. The Diamondbacks are three games back of the pack and holding on for dear life.
The Padres have been solid this season, as they’re 19th in runs scored, 17th in OPS, fifth in steals and sixth in OPS. They’re riding their stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., with 25 RBI, 81 RBI, 36 SB, and an .821 OPS, as well as Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill.
There is also the small matter of a bounce back campaign from Ty France, who leads the team in WAR (4.7) and OPS (.880), while putting up close to a .300 season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a virtual lock to see which Wild Card series team they’ll be facing, but they’re two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for National League home-field advantage. That’s huge, but even more important is avoiding the Wild Card series, which they can do with a win or an Atlanta Braves’ loss.
Los Angeles has one of the best offences in baseball, tallying the fourth-most runs scored (787), the sixth-highest ISO (.169), the second-highest OPS (.766) and the second-highest WAR (26.6) in baseball.
Shohei Ohtani returned from the injury list on Wednesday night and joins what is basically an All-Star Game lineup heading into the postseason. Andy Pages has been their best player by WAR (5.6) this season, with a .796 OPS, 21 HR, 80 RBI, and 12 SB.
Pages, plus Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker and Will Smith, who has played the whole month of September after playing in just 51 games with neck issues, make up an incredible lineup.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Padres vs. Dodgers?
Thursday’s starter for the Padres is Nick Pivetta, who has been pitching masterfully over the last few starts. In three September rotation turns, Pivetta is sporting a 1.93 ERA and a 2-0 record with 11 strikeouts to just a single walk in 14 innings pitched.
For the home Dodgers, it’s flame-throwing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who has been mowing down batters via the strikeout, but has an inflated 5.63 ERA in September. His last start against the Giants was his best of the month, as he allowed two earned runs and just three hits in six innings pitched for the win at home.
This game should be a great one with high stakes for both teams, but we are going with the game total, as this clash is very close with both teams streaking. But an 8.0-run game total could be too much for the pair to combine for, so we’ll take a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.
Best bet: Under 8.0 runs (-110)