Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
Two weeks ago, this matchup meant nothing. Today, it means everything. Baseball’s two hottest teams square off in a three-game series opener Monday in Boston. The All-Star break couldn’t slow the Baltimore Orioles (49-51, fourth in AL East) or the Boston Red Sox (50-48, third in AL East).
The Orioles enter riding a seven-game win streak, fresh off a sweep in Houston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox remain at home riding a 13-game win streak after sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles are now 10-3 in July, and the Red Sox are 13-1.
The pitching matchup Monday features Orioles right-hander Shane Baz (4.19 ERA) and Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle (3.11 ERA).
The Red Sox are -160 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
In 10 of the Red Sox’ 13 wins during the streak, the team has stunningly allowed just two runs or fewer. By that same token, in six of the Orioles’ seven wins during this streak, the team has allowed two runs or fewer.
Payton Tolle has been worse at home and against lefties, and the Orioles have a lot of lefties. Shane Baz for the Orioles has really gotten stung by lefties this year, but the Red Sox do not present many left-handed hitting threats.
Baltimore Orioles
While it’s a limited sample, the Orioles are licking their chops to face off against Tolle again. The current roster is 7-for-22 lifetime against Tolle with a double and two walks against four strikeouts. Taylor Ward is notably 2-for-2.
Tolle tossed six shutout innings against the Orioles at home earlier this year, but he has pitched to a 4.97 ERA this month.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox rank 28th in baseball against right-handed pitching in terms of OPS (.684), and Baz has held right-handed hitters to a .686 OPS this season, and many of the Red Sox’ best bats are righties.
More importantly, the Red Sox are just 10-for-62 lifetime against Baz, without a home run.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Orioles vs. Red Sox?
This is the type of game where I am confident I like one team to win the first five innings, and am confident in the other to win the whole game.
I like Baz to outpitch Tolle, and for the Orioles to be leading 3-1 after five. I like some late offence for the Red Sox and baseball’s best bullpen (3.09 ERA) to be the difference, extending Boston’s win streak to 14.
The Orioles’ bullpen has been better lately, but it’s still a 4.12 ERA unit, and I do not want to go against the Red Sox mojo right now.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
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