Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
The four-game set between the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays has been a rare one. It covered the weekend and leaks over into this Monday night. And the results have been just as rare.
The Rays came into the series at 74-46 and riding a nine-game winning streak. The Orioles entered with a 4-7 August record. The Orioles have taken the first three games of the series and are going for the four-game sweep on Monday.
Monday’s pitching matchup is between Orioles breakout Brandon Young, and the Rays’ dominant southpaw, Shane McClanahan.
Baltimore is a -165 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Rays are 41-21 at home. The Orioles are 29-33 on the road. The Rays are 70-52 against the spread and 55-66-1 on Over/Under totals. The Orioles are 65-59 against the spread and 64-56-4 on Over/Under game totals.
Both teams are knotted with a middle-of-the pack 4.13 bullpen ERA.
Baltimore Orioles
Despite being major sellers at the trade deadline, the Orioles have managed to reach a 61-63 record and now own the third AL Wild Card spot. The race for that final spot could be unlike anything we have ever seen before, with seven teams in the mix.
Over the last week, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser have been playing like mad men, each rocking an OPS north of 1.100 with six combined home runs. This has been huge, as catcher Samuel Basallo, third baseman Blaze Alexander and DH Ryan Mountcastle are still on the IL, in addition to relievers Ryan Helsley and Felix Bautista.
Young carries the advantage because only two Rays hitters have taken at-bats against him. Young dominates left-handed hitters but is vulnerable against righties. He has also been better away from home.
Young’s fastball has been very effective. He induces chase and limits barrels, but the 4.17 expected ERA signal regression is coming.
Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan comes off the IL to make his first start since July 30. He has been a true ace at home, pitching to a 1.94 ERA, and lefties virtually have no chance against him, hitting .125 with a .481 OPS.
While he has a small sample against the current Orioles roster, McClanahan has been dominant against his hometown team, holding opposing bats to a 7-for-33 mark with a .590 OPS.
Yandy Diaz has long been the Rays’ most consistent hitter, and he has been especially hot in the last week, collecting 10 hits, three for extra bases, to go with a .974 OPS.
Diaz and Chandler Simpson are both hitting over .300, which places them in the top seven in average in baseball. Simpson is hitting .444 in the month of August.
Junior Caminero, while streaky, is always the bat to watch out for. Caminero is fourth in home runs with 35, and eighth in RBIs with 79.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Orioles vs. Rays?
McClanahan comes back Monday and shoves, although the red-hot Pete Alonso, who sees the lefty well, will hit a home run.
I like the Rays to avoid the four-game sweep and cover the runline. Young is due for rough waters, and right-handed bats like Caminero and Diaz can do real damage against him. We see some regression to the mean in many ways, and the Rays take care of business at home.
Best Bet: Rays -1.5 (+130)