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Sports Interaction Staff
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
The Baltimore Orioles visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the final game of a three-game mid-week series from Tropicana Field on Wednesday. Sputtering in the AL East with just a 21-28 record, the O’s have languished near the cellar in the division with the Boston Red Sox. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the best record in the American League at 32-15 thanks to solid hitting and lights-out pitching.
The series finale should be excellent, and with Tampa Bay angling for a three-game sweep, let’s break it all down and provide my best bet.
The Rays are slim -120 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
Betting Analysis
For the Orioles, the Under on the game total has hit in 10 of Baltimore’s last 13 games, so if the Orioles decide to hit, the Over is very likely to as well. Frankly, the way the Orioles have been pitching, the opposing team can just hit that number or come close to it. That just may be where we’re at with the Rays, as the game total has gone Over for Tampa Bay in eight of their last nine games and in five of the last six against an AL East opponent.
Baltimore Orioles
The Achilles’ heel for Baltimore has been its pitching, as the Orioles have the third-worst team ERA (4.99) in the MLB. No pitcher has a lower ERA than Kyle Bradish (4.21) on the staff, and features three starters with five losses in the season’s first two months.
They’ve been labeled as chronic underachievers after a prospect binge over the last few seasons has seen them feature players like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, and others. The vibes are definitely not great in Baltimore right now, but they have the talent to turn it around.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are in the bottom six in home runs (40) across MLB this season, but still sport the eighth-highest OPS (.727). Only the Miami Marlins have stolen more bases and attempted more swipes than Tampa, and only Toronto has struck out less than the Rays have. All of this to say that the Rays are maximizing their plate appearances and hitting a LOT of singles. Their 302 singles lead baseball, and this “death by 1,000 cuts” offence has clearly led to success.
On the mound, Tampa has the sixth-best team ERA in baseball, and they’ve gotten excellent contributions from Nick Martinez, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Steven Matz in their rotation. Even when using openers, Tampa’s incredible depth in its bullpen has served them well thus far.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Orioles vs. Rays?
Baltimore will trot out former Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane Baz, who has struggled out of the gate to the tune of a 5.26 ERA and a 1-5 record this season. On the other side, the home Rays will use a long reliever, Jesse Scholtens, as their opener. Typically used as a bulk-inning reliever, Scholtens has given the Rays some quality innings this season, posting a 3.06 ERA in 32.1 innings and a 4-2 record.
As for this game, the Rays at home are the best in baseball, with an 18-5 record, so it’s difficult not to go with the home team as the best team in the AL. So I’ll fall in line and back the Rays in a sweep tonight’s third and final game of this mid-week series.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-103)
