Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Oct 02, 2021

With two games left in the regular season, it's win-or-go-home for the Toronto Blue Jays.

October 03, 2021, 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
Runline +1.5 +152
Moneyline +289
Over / Under o +10


Betting Action


Runline -1.5 -183
Moneyline -353
Over / Under u +10


Betting Action


As we enter the final weekend of the 2021 MLB regular season, the AL wild-card race has come down to four teams fighting for two spots.  The Yankees and Red Sox currently hold the two AL wild-card spots, with Toronto and Seattle each sitting one game back of Boston and two games back of New York.  Needing a series sweep of the Orioles to stay alive, can the Blue Jays get back into playoff contention, or is Baltimore destined to play spoiler?

Toronto is a -250 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 8.5.

Betting Analysis

The Jays’ 6-4 Friday night win was their 12th overall victory, and fourth straight, against the Orioles in 17 games this season.  Sports Interaction bettors sense a trend there, as over 90 per cent of early action taking the Blue Birds to win on Saturday.  The total is a much closer split, with about 60 per cent of action taking the Over.  That number makes sense given just over half of the games in this season series (nine of 17) have gone above the number.

It’s been a long year for the Orioles.  They’ve struggled on the road, dropping six of their last seven games outside of Baltimore and five of their last six in Toronto.  The American League’s last place team hasn’t been a great cover option, either.  The Orioles are 70-90 against the spread this year, including 39-40 ATS on the road.  The total has gone Under in eight of Baltimore’s last 11 games overall.

Trying to claw their way back into the wild-card race, Toronto comes into Saturday with a 10-4 straight up record in their last 14 home games.  They’re 85-75 ATS overall in 2021, including 41-38 ATS at home.  The total has gone Under in seven of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore will send left-hander John Means to the mound on Saturday.  The 28-year-old has a losing 6-8 record this year, with a 3.32 ERA in 25 starts.  Like the entire Orioles team, Means has had his struggles this season.  He’s looked better at the tail end of the year however, allowing three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts.  The southpaw’s last start came last Sunday in a 7-4 loss against the Rangers.  Means lasted five frames, giving up three runs with eight strikeouts.  Per nine innings this season, Means is averaging 8.27 strikeouts with just 1.63 walks.  He’s also throwing a career-high 69.1 per cent of his first pitches for strikes.  Means is 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in three career starts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo will counter with rookie right-hander Alek Manoah for the middle game of this series.  The 23-year-old has had a breakout first season, going 8-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts.  Manoah has pitched into at least the sixth inning and allowed three earned runs or fewer in his last four starts.  He struck out eight batters over 5 2/3 innings in his last appearance to earn his third straight win.  Over 100 innings of work in the majors, Manoah is averaging 10.06 strikeouts and 3.35 walks per nine innings.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Orioles vs. Blue Jays?