Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays are heading home at the right moment. After a series win in Detroit over the weekend, Toronto opens a three-game homestand against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Jays are still alive in the wild card race, but they sit 5.5 games back of the Red Sox for the second wild card spot and still need to hop Seattle and Oakland in the standings.
It’s been a disastrous year in Baltimore and at 40-89 on the season, the Orioles have the worst record in the league by a fair amount. Baltimore comes into this game after being swept in a three-game series against Tampa Bay over the weekend, bringing their final record against the Rays this year to 1-18.
Toronto is a heavy -312 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.0.
Betting Analysis
Like every other team in the majors, the Jays have had success against Baltimore this year. Toronto has won six of nine meetings and outscored the Orioles by a combined 28 runs. Five games went over the total, three games went under and there was a single push.
Baltimore has been awful this season. They’ve lost 18 of their last 20 games overall, 15 of their last 20 games against Toronto (dating back to last season) and nine straight on the road. The total has gone over in four of the Orioles’ last six games. They’re 51-76 against the spread.
This is a perfect opportunity for the Blue Jays to gain some ground in the AL wild card picture, as they’ve won nine of their last 12 home games against Baltimore. The total has gone under in nine of Toronto’s last 10 games overall and six of their last seven at home. They’re 65-61 ATS.
Baltimore Orioles
Nothing has worked for Baltimore this season, but the pitching staff in particular stuck out this past weekend. Orioles’ pitchers gave up 22 runs to Tampa over the three games and blew an eight-run effort from the batters on Sunday. Starter Spencer Watkins struggled, allowing six runs on seven hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out four to earn the loss. Orioles’ pitchers have a collective 5.82 ERA (worst in the majors) and give up 1.59 home runs per nine innings.
Chris Ellis will start on the mound on Monday. Ellis was claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay on August 20. He made his Baltimore debut in a 10-6 win against the Angels last week. He allowed three runs on five hits with three strikeouts, but lasted just three innings. The 28-year-old has only pitched eight career innings (seven this season). Between Tampa and Baltimore this year, Ellis has a 3.86 ERA while striking out 10 batters.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has dug themselves in a fairly big hole with the wild card race, but the series win in Detroit over the weekend was a step in the right direction. Blue Jays’ pitchers held Detroit to five runs over three games, highlighted by a breakout performance from Jose Berrios on Sunday. Berrios, who was traded from Minnesota in July, tossed seven innings of one-run ball. He allowed six hits with no walks and picked up 11 strikeouts. Bo Bichette led Toronto batters with three hits, but the team was 0-10 with runners in scoring position.
Robbie Ray gets the start to open the series. Ray has been having the best season of his career and is +500 to win the AL Cy Young. He’s 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 152 1/3 total innings. In his last start, Ray went seven innings in a 3-1 win against the White Sox, last Wednesday. He allowed one run on five hits with one walk and racked up a season-high 14 strikeouts. The name to watch out for is outfielder George Springer, who has been out with a knee sprain. There’s been no word on when he’ll return, but there is hope he’ll be able to at least DH on Monday. Earlier this season, the 31-year-old became the first Blue Jays player to earn American League player of the week honours two weeks in a row. Springer is hitting .269 with 16 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games.
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