Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Baltimore opened as a -140 favourite on the MLB odds for the series opener.
Betting Analysis
Toronto concluded a season series with another AL East powerhouse in the Yankees over the weekend in New York and this wraps up the series with the Orioles. Toronto lost three of four at Camden Yards last week and trails the season series 6-4. Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman is 11-for-33 with five homers, nine RBIs and eight runs scored in the series. Anthony Santander is 13-for-39 with four homers and nine knocked in. Gunnar Henderson, though, is only batting .219 with a single RBI and nine strikeouts. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Jays in the series with a .444 average, four HRs and 10 RBIs.
Baltimore did take a bit of a hit last Wednesday when All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg sustained a broken hand when he was hit by a pitch from Yerry Rodriguez in the fifth inning at Camden Yards. The 25-year-old Westburg is batting .269 with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs in 101 games this year. The hope is he will be back before the end of the regular season. That’s a loss, no doubt, but the Orioles are so incredibly deep in young position players. Last Friday to take Westburg’s roster spot, the team called up touted infield prospect Coby Mayo. He is ranked as the No. 15 overall prospect in the sport. The No. 1 overall is infielder Jackson Holliday, who was called back up earlier last week and has been raking since.
The Orioles are going to have to trade some of these prospects this offseason to land starting pitching as that’s clearly their need – especially with ace and AL Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes set for free agency. The Jays will miss Burnes as he pitched Sunday in Cleveland.
Baltimore Orioles
It’s quite rare for a team to have back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, but that may happen for Baltimore as it had the 2023 winner in shortstop Gunnar Henderson and has the current betting favourite in outfielder Colton Cowser, who enters with a 17-game hitting streak. That’s the longest by an Orioles hitter since 2021 and tied with Trey Mancini for the franchise rookie record. Cowser has really taken off since replacing Henderson at leadoff. Henderson, who enters off back-to-back three-hit games, would be an MVP favourite in many years at .293 with 29 homers, 69 RBIs, a .946 OPS and 14 steals, but the Yankees’ Aaron Judge is winning that award in 2024. The Orioles lineup is good enough to win a World Series. We just don’t think that rotation is.
It’s No. 2 starter Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA) on the hill Tuesday. The 24-year-old righty beat the Jays at Camden Yards last Wednesday, allowing three earned over six. Rodriguez is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in five career starts vs. Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.357, HR, two RBI) and George Springer (.429, HR, three RBI) have had career success off Rodriguez. The over is 7-0 in Baltimore’s past seven road games.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays were upset winners last Friday in their series opener at the Yankees but lost the final two. Vladimir Guerrero had a double Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 17 games, tied with Baltimore’s Colton Cowser for the longest active in MLB. Guerrero is batting .508 (32-for-63) during the streak with 19 extra-base hits. He is the fifth player in MLB history to have multiple hitting streaks of at least 15 games coming out of the All-Star break career as Guerrero also had a 22-game run from July 15-Aug. 13, 2022. Toronto’s only series win since the break was a three-game home sweep vs. Texas from July 26-28.
Right-hander Chris Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA) is on the mound Tuesday. The 35-year-old might be gassed as he was 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA last month. His lone start this year vs. the Orioles was last Wednesday in Baltimore, and Bassitt was hammered for five runs and nine hits over four innings in a loss. He is now 3-3 with a 5.45 ERA in seven career starts vs. the O’s. Gunnar Henderson is 4-for-7 off him with two homers. The over is 17-3 in the Blue Jays’ past 20 games.
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