Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The O’s are -120 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
It was a bit of a rough offseason for the Blue Jays as they were in the free-agent derby for the two biggest players available in All-Star outfielder Juan Soto and Japanese right-handed pitcher Roki Sasaki, but lost out on Soto to the Mets and on Sasaki to the Dodgers – just like Los Angeles beat out Toronto for Shohei Ohtani in the previous winter. So the Jays instead pivoted to former Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander for a bat and future Hall of Fame righty Max Scherzer for the rotation.
Santander got a five-year, $92.5 million (US) deal with a potential sixth year but also an opt-out. Guys tend to have career seasons in contract years and Santander did last year for the Orioles, making his first American League All-Star team and posting a .506 slugging percentage with 44 home runs (third in the majors), 102 RBIs and 25 doubles in 155 games. The 44 dingers were also the fifth most for a switch-hitter in a single season and the most for a switch-hitter since Lance Berkman hit 45 in 2006. But that’s really all Santander does is homer and he is a bad defender.
Scherzer is first-ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires as a three-time Cy Young Award winner, but that guy is long gone at age 40 (41 in July) as Scherzer was limited to just nine starts last year with Texas but was still pretty effective with a 3.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
But this season will be all about the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Free Agency Watch … and to a lesser extent the pending FA for Bo Bichette as well. Both could be flipped this summer if the Blue Jays aren’t contending. The Yankees already have been heavily linked to Guerrero to help replace Soto. Guerrero said this spring he will take to every team in the majors, a stark turnaround from his comments in 2023 when Guerrero said that he would never play for the Yankees.
Baltimore was 7-6 vs. Toronto last season but 3-4 at Rogers Centre.
Baltimore Orioles
It was a rather disappointing offseason for the Orioles considering the team is coming off back-to-back playoff appearances but swept in both years and without a postseason win since 2014. We say disappointing because the franchise has a fairly new owner willing to spend and arguably no team in baseball has a better group of young position players either already in the Show or about to be. Yet the Birds lost ace Corbin Burnes and 44-homer slugger Anthony Santander (to the Jays as mentioned above) and replaced them with downgrades in 41-year-old Charlie Morton and former Red Sox outfielder Tyler O’Neill.
This team should hit a ton but I don’t see enough pitching whatsoever to seriously contend short of making a trade – and the O’s have the assets for sure. All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson will miss this series on injured reserve but projected closer Felix Bautista is ready to go. Henderson, off an MVP-calibre 2024 season, is dealing with an intercostal injury, while Bautista missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery.
Righty Zach Eflin, a 2024 midseason trade acquisition, gets the Opening Day call on the mound. He was 5-2 for the Birds with a 2.60 ERA in nine regular-season starts after coming over from Tampa Bay. In four total starts vs. the Jays, Eflin was 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 2024. This will be the second straight season opener against the Jays as Eflin gave up six runs over 5 2/3 innings last season as the Rays lost 8-2 at home to Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto finished last in the American League East in 2024 with a 74-88 record and many around MLB thought that Jays manager John Schneider would not return, but he’s still in the dugout if perhaps on the hottest seat in the sport. This spring, Schneider said he thought this year’s club was better on paper than the 2024 version – but note that starting outfielder and Gold Glover Daulton Varsho will open the season on IR after offseason shoulder surgery.
Team president Mark Shapiro told reporters last week that he’s confident the Jays will be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this season. Reports are that the sides are roughly $50 million apart. After starting slowly last season, Guerrero took off starting in about late May and finished with a .323 average and a .940 OPS, winning a Silver Slugger and finishing sixth in the AL MVP race. He is 7-for-19 career with two homers and a double against Orioles starter Zach Eflin. Bo Bichette, however, is only 2-for-14 off him.
Righty Jose Berrios gets the call for Toronto, the third time he’ll take the ball in the opener for the Blue Jays and fifth time in his career. Last season, Berrios was 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA and didn’t get a decision in two starts vs. the Orioles with a 2.77 ERA. Berrios was significantly better at home (10-3, 3.18 ERA) overall in 2024.
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