Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -170 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs for the opener behind rising young pitcher Bowden Francis.
Betting Analysis
Since the former Montreal Expos franchise won its only World Series title in 2019, the Washington Nationals have finished with a losing record every season, and it was a minor surprise that Dave Martinez was brought back for Year 8 after back-to-back 71-91 marks the past two seasons.
The Nationals don’t have a superstar to build around since trading Juan Soto to San Diego in the summer of 2022 like the Jays have in pending free agent Vladimir Guerrero, but Washington does have an excellent group of young players led by shortstop CJ Abrams, catcher Kelbert Ruiz, outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews, and starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore (scheduled for Wednesday’s finale).
All but Ruiz and Crews were acquired via the Soto trade. Crews was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft out of LSU behind pitcher and teammate Paul Skenes, who was 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. Crews did get called up last season, too, but held onto rookie status and is among the 2025 NL ROY favourites.
This team might be able to stay on the fringe of NL wild card contention this season – +1000 to make the playoffs and -2000 for no – but should really start making noise in 2026, especially if ownership is willing to starting spending again.
These clubs played three games last season in D.C., and Washington won two of three. The Nats lost two of three in Toronto in the last visit in 2023. This is the only scheduled series in 2025.
Washington Nationals
Washington avoided a season-opening home sweep at the hands of the Phillies with Sunday’s 5-1 win, although the bullpen made it very interesting in the top of the ninth inning. Closer Kyle Finnegan was needed in the ninth but hadn’t pitched since last Thursday, so he’s likely available if needed Monday. The Nationals likely have one of the worst bullpens in the majors overall but Finnegan is solid. He shouldn’t have been needed Sunday with his team leading 5-0 in the ninth but fellow reliever Brad Lord loaded the bases without getting an out.
Righty and Calgary native Michael Soroka makes his season debut tonight as the starting pitcher. Years ago, the 27-year-old was one of the Atlanta Braves’ top prospects and Soroka started his career well, but then it went completely off track largely due to injuries. Last season he was with the historically bad White Sox and went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 25 appearances (nine starts). Soroka is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. Washington was 33-48 on the road last season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto was able to split its home opening four-game set with Baltimore thanks to Sunday’s 3-1 win behind an excellent outing from Chris Bassitt. Closer Jeff Hoffman finished it for his first save with the Jays but may not be available Monday after also throwing Saturday. Shortstop Bo Bichette has been raking in the early going with seven hits (two doubles) and four runs scored in 15 at-bats. New addition Anthony Santander hasn’t gotten going yet at .200 with six strikeouts and one RBI.
Righty Bowden Francis takes the hill after a breakout 2024 campaign where he went 8-5 with a 3.30 ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts). He was one of the best pitchers in the AL for the final two months or so with near no-hitters Angels and Mets, seven consecutive quality starts and a 1.53 ERA over his final nine appearances. After the All-Star break, his opponents’ batting average of .188 was the lowest in MLB (minimum 50 innings). This spring, Francis was 1-1 with a 7.63 ERA in 15.1 innings. He has pitched three career innings vs. Washington in relief and not allowed a run.
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