MLB Power Rankings: Texas Rangers Cling to First Place
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Edgar Chaput
It feels like summer outside and the Major League Baseball season is heating up. While some clubs haven’t changed position much in our rankings, there are one or two standouts, not to mention one team that is currently defying all expectations.
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All data as of Friday June 23 before game times.
MLB Power Rankings
1. Texas Rangers (45-28, runline: 47-27)
The Rangers retain the top spot in our exercise. They haven’t been terrific over the past fortnight (5-5 in their last 10 games) but good enough to swat away challenges for the thrown. They also still lead the AL West and, albeit by just a game, have the best record against the spread. They’ve scored the most runs in the majors with 451. Right fielder Leody Taveras is hitting an impressive .299.
2. Baltimore Orioles (45-28, runline: 46-27)
While the Baltimore Orioles haven’t reclaimed the number one slot, they aren’t far behind. They have the same win-loss record as the team they’re chasing and have one less covered spread than Texas. We’re splitting hairs. Austin Hays is batting like a champ, currently hitting .323.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (46-30, runline: 46-30)
Holding on to a top five place are the NL West-leading Diamondbacks. Starting pitcher Zac Gallen is having a wild season, compiling a 9-2 record, 104 strikeouts, and a 2.84 ERA at the time of writing. Their closest competitors are the rising Giants, whom they visit for a three-game set this weekend.
4. Cincinnati Reds (40-35, runline: 47-28)
Who was it that said that the Cincinnati Reds were not to be taken that seriously despite a good record against the runline? Was it us? Oh dear…Then again, good for Cincy! The Reds are on fire, having gone perfect in their last 10 games and now lead the NL Central. Canadian icon Joey Votto even returned to action this week and hit a home run. People should not overlook this club, and by “people” the author means himself
5. Tampa Bay Rays (52-26, runline: 43-35)
It is what it is. The team with the best record in MLB only ranks as high as fifth, but the runline is simply too important for our purposes. They’re an overwhelmingly superior home team (32-9) than they are when playing away (20-17), which is ironic given how their stadium is considered among the worst in the league. Wander Franco is third in the majors with 24 stolen bases. Yandy Diaz remarkably keeps hitting.300 almost every game.
6. San Francisco Giants (42-33, runline: 40-35)
The tough choices begin immediately outside the top five. It was only weeks ago that San Francisco hovered around 20th – 13th last time – yet now they’re comfortably among the ten best clubs. What happened? Well, two really good weeks. They aren’t a .500 club anymore and the performances against the runline are respectable. Lamonte Wade Jr. is third in MLB with a phenomenal .415 on base percentage.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers (41-33, runline: 40-34)
The Dodgers dip a bit – fifth last time – but largely because the rival Giants are playing so well these days. A lot of the next teams have covered more or less 40 times this season, so expect some strangely similar figures. Will Smith (not THAT Will Smith) has the fifth-best on base percentage at .408 while Clayton Kershaw is doing what Clayton Kershaw does – 2.72 ERA.
8. New York Yankees (41-34, runline: 40-35)
Like the Dodgers, the pinstripes take a couple of steps back. It could have only been one step – from sixth to seventh – were it not for having played one more game than L.A. and losing it. Aaron Judge is on the mend and is expected to be back soon. We just mentioned Kershaw, but Gerrit Cole is even better with his 2.64 ERA.
9. Atlanta Braves (48-26, runline: 36-38)
It feels as though we’ve been writing the same thing for weeks about the Braves. “Wow, they’re so good in the standings but if only they could help betters more on the runline.” Rinse and repeat. Still, 48-26 is far too strong a win-loss record to prevent the club from cracking the top 10. At a minimum players can trust them on the runline. If you thought Ronald Acanua Jr. was amazing at bat (.324 batting average), consider that he’s second in the majors with 32 stolen bases.
10. Boston Red Sox (39-37, runline: 40-36)
Jays fans can cry foul that their club sits above Boston in the AL East but is the only division member not to be in the top ten. That’s because the Red Sox are one of those teams to only be slightly above .500 but cover 40 times. Speaking of winning, when they have the lead, it’s a great idea to send Kenley Jansen from the bullpen to the mound. His 15 saves lead the team and are good for eighth in MLB.
11. Chicago Cubs Cubs (35-38, runline: 41-33)
A decent climb for Chicago’s beloved Cubs as they were 17th two weeks ago. 41-33 ATS is an excellent figure given how mediocre they’ve been on the field. It’s enough to tempt betters to invest faith in them. When we last wrote about them we waxed poetic about Marcus Stroman. He hasn’t slowed down. A 2.28 ERA and a stunning .191 batting average allowed. Wow.
12. Miami Marlins 43-33, runline: 37-39)
Plagued with a similar problem to the Atlanta Braves, whom they contend with in the NL East, the Marlins just don’t cover enough spreads for them to gain significant traction for a spot in the top ten. Fans won’t care. They’re just happy the team is relevant for the first time in what feels like forever. Assuming Luis Arraez continues the way he is now – and that may be asking for a lot – how could he not be an MVP?
13. Houston Astros (41-34, runline: 37-38)
Another team with a decent record but that hasn’t earned the trust of betters this season. It’s been up and down for the defending champs. The talent is there, we know this for a fact. But at this stage, with three months of baseball played, maybe the 2023 edition simply isn’t on par with those of years past. They’re far from bad, but they also don’t strike fear anymore.
14. Los Angeles Angels (41-35, runline: 38-38)
Tagging just behind in this ranking and the actual standings are the L.A. Angels. They were a fun story, but then the neighbouring Dodgers paid a two-day visit and not only won both times but shut out the Angels – a duo of 2-0 defeats. Shohei Ohtani is increble, but what else is new? He leads the majors as a hitter in home runs (24) and as a pitcher in batting average allowed (.171).
15. Washington Nationals (28-46, runline: 42-32)
Washington takes a bit of a stumble. It’s not that they had a good win-loss record two weeks ago – they were eleven games under .500. It’s that they got even worse, now 18 games under .500. But then one notices the tally against the spread and a ray of hope emerges, so we place them smack in the middle of the rankings this time. Bet on them, just don’t expect them to win much
16. Toronto Blue Jays (41-35, runline: 34-42)
Toronto is among the last teams on the list with a sensible record in the standings but bad performances ATS. After the Jays it gets a little moribund. They took care of the Marlins this week, winning two out of three in Florida, but they need consistency. Bo Bichette is playing at another level entirely, and while one can’t expect everyone to do what he is, the group needs to close the gap at least a little bit.
17. Minnesota Twins (38-38, runline: 37-39)
Oh, hello AL Central! There you are. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Heaven forbid anyone in this division look good. Once again, the Twins lead their rivals despite playing .500 baseball. They also cover just enough spreads so that if one squints they can pick some games where they made perform well.
18. Milwaukee Brewers (38-36, runline: 32-42)
The NL Central is a mirror image of its AL counterpart. No one wants to take the initiative. At least the Brewers are slightly above .500, although that could change any day. Furthermore, against the runline they can’t be trusted. Brian Anderson leads the club with 34 RBIs.
19. Philadelphia Phillies (38-36, runline: 29-45)
Philly is slowly – very slowly – climbing its way out of the hole it dug itself in during the first couple of months. The question is “Is it too late?” Even so, with a tally against the runline like that, some might argue that allowing them to crack the top 20 is generous. Nick Castellanos continues to have a great season at the plate, hitting .311.
20. Detroit Tigers (32-41, runline: 39-34)
And the beat goes on. They are the opposite of the Blue Jays: the last team with a sensible record ATS but a pitiful one in the standings. The bright spot here is starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. His record is only 4-4, but he doesn’t get any run support. The 2.13 ERA is impeccable.
21. Chicago White Sox (32-44, runline: 38-38)
We promise the readers, we’re not trying to handle the AL Central in a single bunch. The division is what it is: not good, not outright bad either. The .500 record against the runline saves the White Sox from blushes, even though they don’t win many games. Luis Robert Jr. is having a good season at the plate at least, having smacked 18 balls out of the park.
22. Seattle Mariners (36-37, runline: 35-38)
The bottom ten is a bit sad because it’s made up of so many teams that earned a postseason birth in 2022. It goes shows how swiftly things can change from one season to the next. Look no further than the Mariners. Luis Castillo can still be relied on for solid outings, sporting an enviable 2.89 ERA.
23. San Diego Padres (36-39, runline: 36-39)
A visit to San Francisco earlier this week for which they fell in three out of four games was another indicator of which direction the Padres are heading in 2023. It’s not good enough, even if they avoided a sweep with a 10-0 victory on Thursday. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s .548 slugging percentage means there’s always potential for excitement when it’s his turn at bat.
24. Cleveland Guardians (36-38, runline: 35-39)
At the very least, Cleveland doesn’t have much ground to gain to overtake the Twins for the AL Central lead. The problem is it’s been weeks and they can’t close the gap. They can be trusted somewhat against the spread but not enough for us to rank them any higher than this. There is an entire second half of baseball left to play. Maybe the Guardians are saving their best for last.
25. Pittsburgh Pirates (34-40, runline: 34-40)
Pittsburgh’s early season feel-good vibes are fading in the rear-view mirror. It’s not like they trail Milwaukee or Cincinnati by a bunch, but they can’t seem to find that extra gear required to make a push. At least when they have a lead late in a game they can hand the ball to David Bednar and his 14 saves to date. Their current slide is abysmal – 0-10.
26. Colorado Rockies (29-48, runline: 35-42)
The bottom five gets a bit funky for this edition. Colorado is pretty bad in the standings, but they cover just often enough to avoid finishing any lower. It’s a sad state of affairs when once just grows accustomed to seeing the same team in last place, or near it.
27. Oakland Athletics (19-58, runline: 35-42)
This is not a typo. The Oakland A’s are better than three other teams in MLB. Well, not really, but they’ve started to cover the spread a lot in recent weeks. Again, the caveat is that their tally ATS is only 35-42, but when considering how often they lose that’s shockingly good. Congratulations, you’re no longer the worst or second-worst.
28. New York Mets (34-40, runline: 27-47)
Another club experiencing a hangover from 2022. Pete Alonso is contending with Shohei Ohtani for the lead in home runs with 23, but that’s one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season. No one is really standing out, and as such nor are the Mets as a whole.
29. St. Louis Cardinals (31-44, runline: 33-42)
Still sitting last in the NL Central, the Cardinals are not showing very much to suggest that their position will change. The Pirates would have to continue sliding, although they’re doing a pretty good job of that at the moment. At least St. Louis had won a few games in a row prior to Wednesday’s defeat to the Nationals.
30. Kansas City Royale (21-54, runline: 25-50)
Things are getting pretty bad in Kansas City. Not only are they hardly any better than Oakland when it comes to wins and losses, but they’ve also covered the least amount of spreads. It makes doing an exercise like a power ranking interesting when more than just traditional baseball stats are considered. Players shouldn’t trust the Royals on the money or runline. Ouch.