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Edgar Chaput
MLB Power Rankings, World Series Odds: Texas Rangers Still Shine Brightest
The calendar has switched to July and the All-Star Game is just around the corner. From here on out the MLB Power Rankings take on new life. Not only do the performances against the runline mean a lot for betters, but the outright wins and losses mean so much more for the clubs themselves.
Before we start, don’t forget to check out our American League, National League, Interleague props, and MLB Props. Last but not least, given the nature of the rankings, there are our World Series Winner odds too just below.
All data for this edition of the MLB Power rankings was compiled as of Wednesday, July 5 BEFORE any games started.
Without further ado…
MLB Power Rankings
1. Texas Rangers (51-36, runline : 52-34)
Inches. Millimeters. Photo finish. Yes, the Texas Rangers rank first for the third edition in a row, but boy is it getting close – and two weeks ago was close enough already! We’re splitting hairs here. They still lead the AL West and have covered the spread the second-most times as of this writing. Going 4-6 in their most recent 10 is a little worrisome. Nathan Eovaldi is tied for second in MLB with 10 wins to his name.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (50-36, runline: 51-35)
Arizona continues to demonstrate to anyone and everyone that they have arrived. This is not a drill or a joke. The Dodgers have been the beasts of the NL West for years and the Diamondbacks have kept them at arm’s length for months already. They’re also one of only four clubs to cover at least 50 times. We just mentioned Nathan Eovaldi tied for second with 10 wins. Well, one of those other pitchers is Arizona’s Zac Gallen.
3. Baltimore Orioles (49-35, runline: 50-34)
Baltimore and Arizona swap rankings from a fortnight ago. The numbers look very good, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 and, at the time of writing, got spanked twice in a row by the New York Yankees. It’s definitely a collective effort in Maryland. For a team with as good a record as the Orioles, it’s interesting that they don’t figure in the top five of any of the major and obvious statistical categories. Austin Hays is listed Day-to-Day at the moment, but he’s having a great year, hitting .312 and 34 RBIs.
4. Cincinnati Reds (47-39, runline: 54-32)
Kudos to Spencer Steer and the gang. Two weeks ago we thought we made a splash by putting the Reds in fourth place, but they’ve kept at it. They’re winning games and covering a LOT of spreads. Of note, despite being eight games over .500 and leading the NL Central, their run differential is -15. Maybe they aren’t out of the woods just yet, but with over 70 games to go they have plenty of time to course correct some details.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (57-31, runline: 48-40)
If the ranking is starting to read a lot like the previous edition, that’s because not much as changed. Tampa was fifth two weeks ago. It simply doesn’t feel right to place a 57-win club any lower than fifth. They’re record ATS isn’t bad at all, it just doesn’t pop like those of their closest rivals. On the diamond this team is extremely dangerous though. They have players in the top five of tons of categories. Wander Franco (stolen bases), Yandy Diaz (batting average), Shane McClanahan (ERA).
6. New York Yankees (48-38, runline: 47-39)
Unless one is a Yankees fan, it seems everyone hates them. But props to this team for keeping their heads above water during Aaron Judge’s absence. At the time of writing they’ve already won twice against the Orioles, a divisional rival. It doesn’t look as though this edition of the Yankees will pose as big a threat as they often do, but they’re also too good to be ignored.
7. Atlanta Braves (57-28, runline: 43-42)
We wrote just a few paragraphs ago how wrong it would be to slot a 57-win team lower than fifth, and yet here we are. On the flip, records ATS are too important to ignore and Atlanta has been iffy all season. Even so, Ronald Acuna Jr. is having a career year and a historical one to boot.
8. Houston Astros (48-38, runline: 46-40)
A big boost for the Astros, from 13th to eighth. One starts to wonder if they’re just biding their time, winning enough games to make the playoffs before swatting away the opposition when it matters most. Framber Valdez’s ERA has gone up just a tiny bit, but it’s still a splendid 2.49. Kyle Tucker is turning into a monster at the plate, hitting .293 with 45 RBIs.
9. Miami Marlins (50-37, runline: 42-45)
A team in ninth with a record ATS under .500. Look, writing these power rankings is difficult. So many stats to juggle. Miami is still 50-37 in the standings and so vastly superior to what they’ve been for years upon years that we have to give them some top 10 love. Just bet on them on the moneyline, maybe not the runline. Luis Arraez’s batting average has “dipped” from around .400 to .387. How dare he.
10-Los Angeles Dodgers (47-38, runline: 44-41)
The Dodgers lose a few steps and fall from seventh to 10th, but that’s just the kind of year it’s been for them, much like the aforementioned Astros. They’re good, just not as good as usual. Trailing Arizona in the NL West by only 2.5 games means they still have an excellent chance of overtaking them eventually, but they’ve haven’t found that groove to suggest when or if that might happen. Freddie Freeman’s great season continues with a .313 batting average.
11. San Francisco Giants (46-40, runline: 44-42)
The last time we wrote about San Fran it was to sing their praises for playing much better baseball. Here we go again with the inconsistency, hence the drop from sixth to 11th. What happened to that 2021 team? Who knows. But these guys aren’t it. Thairo Estrada has cooled off – and is on the 10-day IL – but J.D. Davis has picked up some slack at the plate.
12. Washington Nationals (34-51, runline: 49-36)
This is what happens when no one expects anything from you. The team loses most of its games because they aren’t very good, but because they aren’t terrible, they cover most of their spreads. What to do with the Nationals? The double irony is that for a club with a 49-36 record ATS, their run differential is a disastrous -80. This is a very, very difficult team to make heads or tails of for betters.
13. Minnesota Twins (44-43, runline: 43-44)
This week we’ll give some more respect to the AL Central leading Twins since it feels as though every time we bring them up it’s with back handed compliments. They’re run differential is a rather good +41 and, as mediocre as the division is, they simply refuse to relinquish the top spot. Those things have to count for something. Take note of Pablo Lopez, fourth in MLB with 126 strikeouts.
14. Boston Red Sox (43-43, runline: 44-42)
This past weekend Boston gave the Blue Jays a thing or two to think about. In Toronto during the Canada Day celebrations no less. This isn’t the Red Sox team that challenged for World Series titles a few years ago, but they possess enough skill to be a threat on any given day. The team is fifth in majors for hits, with Alex Verdugo’s 91 leading the charge.
15. Chicago Cubs (39-45, runline: 44-40)
The Cubs are like the “light” version of the Nationals. They don’t scare many teams, but they’re also suspiciously good with respect to covering the spread. A few weeks ago we showered Marcus Stroman with praise. Now it’s Justin Steele with the best ERA in the majors, earning an incredible 2.43.
16. Milwaukee Brewers (46-40, runline: 39-47)
Who knows if Milwaukee thought it could coast through the regular season in the NL Central, but they’re in a real fight with Cincy now. Unfortunately, even though their win-loss record is decent, they aren’t to be trusted much ATS, hence they open the bottom half of the rankings. Christian Yelich is putting in a nice season, hitting .284 with 42 RBIs so far.
17. Detroit Tigers (37-47, runline: 44-40)
We enter the phase of the power rankings when some tallies against the runline are good enough for a team to avoid being ranked embarrassingly low, but in truth they aren’t very good. Enter the Detroit Tigers. Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be the shining beacon in Michigan with a stellar 2.13 ERA. He returns from a 15-day IL.
18. Toronto Blue Jays (46-40, runline: 37-49)
The Blue Jays are the epitome of a team that’s struggling more than anticipated, but because of the talent on the roster and the recent relative success, they have a target on their backs. Thus we have an okay 46-40 club the hunt for a Wild Card spot but that’s awful at covering the spread.
19. Philadelphia Phillies (45-39, runline: 35-49)
Very similar to the Jays, the Phillies are finding a groove, but can’t seem to get out of their own way sometimes. There’s no question that Nick Castellanos is one of the best hitters in the game this year, hitting .312 through 82 games. His 54 RBIs is great as well.
20. Cleveland Guardians (42-43, runline: 41-44)
This is always the most difficult segment of the rankings. Clubs that meander around .500 both in the win-loss column and against the spread. The Guardians are not terrible but there’s not much to write home about either. The exception is certainly Emmanuel Clase with his 24 saves, good for second in MLB.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates (40-45, runline: 41-44)
Likewise for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have ended up as the 2023 definition of a team one shouldn’t have trusted too much despite a brilliant first few weeks. The Pirates are very much in “business as usual” mode, in other words just sort of existing. But hey, they’re fifth in the majors with 79 stolen bases. That’s pretty cool.
22. Los Angeles Angels (45-43, runline: 41-47)
Unquestionably the best team ranked this low. Two games above .500 and they don’t even crack the top 20. Madness? Not so much. First of all, they’re difficult to trust against the runline. Second, at the time of writing, it is had been a monumentally bad week. Mike Trout is on a 10-day IL because of an injury suffered on Monday and Shohei Ohtani couldn’t finish Tuesday night’s game because of a blister on his throwing hand. If they struggled to make ground with them, what are they without them?
23. Seattle Mariners (42-42, runline: 40-44)
It starting to look as if the Seattle Mariners aren’t going to do anything to justify a place in the top 20 in 2023. They are card carrying members of the “not bad, not good” club. On the bright side George Kirby is tied for third in MLB with 13 quality starts.
24. San Diego Padres (40-46, runline: 41-45)
In fairness, apart from a little bit of shuffling here and there, the bottom 10 is consistent with the past few editions. San Diego is exactly like the Mariners, a team who wowed many in 2022 but just couldn’t produce a followup act in 2023. Of course, we’re saying things like this knowing half a season of baseball is left to be played, but trough 50 per cent of the season, the proof is in the pudding.
25. Chicago White Sox (37-50, runline: 44-43)
The final club with a decent tally against the runline, the White Sox have fallen behind significantly in the standings. Luis Roberts Jr. is providing fireworks this season with 25 home runs. In fact he hit one on July 4 against the Blue Jays which literally produced fireworks on the best day imaginable.
26. Oakland Athletics (24-63, runline: 41-46)
You better believe the run line counts a lot with this placement. Four teams supposedly worse yet Oakland is an incredible 39 games under .500 and has a woeful -236 run differential. Minus 236! But look at that record ATS. It barely makes any sense, but clearly they are trustworthy enough to plant the seed of doubt in a better’s mind before they place a proposition against them. Maybe don’t?
27. New York Mets (39-46, runline: 34-51)
The 2022 hangover parade continues. Bottom five is bottom five. None of these ball clubs are playing very well. We give the benefit of the doubt to the Mets if only because they win more than the others – which admittedly goes against the basis of this exercise. Justin Verlander, the seasoned vet and World Series winner, hasn’t even looked himself at times.
28. Colorado Rockies (33-54, runline: 39-48)
Another season down the drain for the Rockies. The last time we did this exercise was on the eve a historic 25-1 drubbing suffered at home to the Los Angeles Angels. When your best starting pitcher, Kyler Freeland, has an ERA of 4.93, you’re in trouble. It’s tough pitching well in Colorado, yes, but still.
29. St. Louis Cardinals (35-50, runline: 38-47)
It’s unbelievable to think that a team that was in the playoffs last year has lost 50 times before the All-Star break. How the mighty have fallen. The incredible part is despite their lowly record and sitting in last place in the NL Central, they’re only 11 games out. 11 is still a decent amount of ground to make up, but having over 70 games to do it is a lot of mileage.
30. Kansas City Royals (25-61, runline: 30-56)
It seems as if we have found, at least for now, the true worst team for a sportsbook’s power rankings. For a while it was easy to mock the A’s, but the reality is at least they cover the spread a decent number of times. The Royals don’t even do that and they lose often. Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, all have ERAs over 5.40 or 6.00.
