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Edgar Chaput
MLB Power Ranking: Tampa Bay Rays Fend off Challengers
Now that the 2023 MLB campaign has a full month in the books, gauging where teams stand is a slightly easier proposition. Granted, those squads hovering around .500 are always a bit tricky to place, but there is greater confidence now that several weeks of data is available.
An important reminder. This being a sportsbook, a team’s performance against the runline carries a lot of weight in its ranking, so expect some surprises insofar as certain clubs with mediocre win-loss tallies ranking somewhat high and vice versa.
Take note that the data used is as of the afternoon of Wednesday, April 26.
Also, don’t forget to check out the MLB Odds, National League betting, interleague odds, and MLB props for all your Major League Baseball action.
MLB Power Rankings
| Rank | Team | Runline | Record | World Series Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rays | 17-7 | 20-4 | +1539 |
| 2 | Pirates | 15-9 | 16-8 | +10500 |
| 3 | Blue Jay | 15-10 | 16-9 | +699 |
| 4 | Orioles | 13-11 | 16-8 | +2797 |
| 5 | Cubs | 14-8 | 13-9 | +5180 |
| 6 | Brewers | 14-11 | 16-9 | +1678 |
| 7 | Braves | 12-12 | 16-8 | +629 |
| 8 | Twins | 14-11 | 14-11 | +4476 |
| 9 | Rangers | 13-11 | 14-10 | +3497 |
| 10 | Mets | 13-10 | 14-11 | +629 |
| 11 | Astros | 14-10 | 13-11 | +385 |
| 12 | Reds | 16-9 | 10-15 | +8670 |
| 13 | Diamindbacks | 14-11 | 13-12 | +5180 |
| 14 | Dodgers | 11-13 | 13-11 | +350 |
| 15 | Red Sox | 15-11 | 13-13 | +2727 |
| 16 | Yankees | 12-13 | 14-11 | +699 |
| 17 | Tigers | 13-9 | 9-13 | +4476 |
| 18 | Nationals | 13-9 | 8-14 | +10500 |
| 19 | Mariners | 11-12 | 11-12 | +1399 |
| 20 | Giants | 12-12 | 10-13 | +2797 |
| 21 | Padres | 11-14 | 12-12 | +979 |
| 22 | Cardinals | 10-14 | 9-15 | +1678 |
| 23 | White Sox | 10-15 | 7-18 | +2098 |
| 24 | Angels | 9-15 | 12-12 | +3497 |
| 25 | Marlins | 9-15 | 12-12 | +4476 |
| 26 | Guardians | 8-17 | 12-13 | +2378 |
| 27 | Phillies | 9-15 | 11-13 | +1399 |
| 28 | Rockies | 9-17 | 8-18 | +6990 |
| 29 | Royals | 9-15 | 6-18 | +6990 |
| 30 | Athletics | 9-15 | 5-19 | +10500 |
*Odds as of April 27th, 2023
1. Tampa Bay Rays (20-4, runline: 17-7)
For the Rays to be placed first two weeks ago in our inaugural ranking with a 12-0 start is one thing. That they are still the top dog (or biggest fish?) a fortnight later with an illustrious 20-4 win-loss tally means something is brewing down by the bay. Furthermore, they are the perfect combination of winning a lot and covering spreads with a 17-7 ATS record. They still rank first in batting average, home runs hit, and RBIs. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena continue to impress at the plate.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (16-8, runline: 15-9)
Pittsburgh gets a significant boost. They were ninth in our first ranking attempt two weeks ago. Their decent start to the season was cute and slid them into the top ten. Not this time. 16-8 and, more importantly, 15-9 against the runline are fantastic. They lead the NL Central, are third in the majors in wins by starting pitchers and first in saves. Closer David Bednar is to thank for that (eight saves).
3. Toronto Blue Jays (16-9, runline: 15-10)
The team has carries the hopes of an entire nation lands in the top three. Toronto is so far making good on the pre-season hype. Yes, they’re third in the AL East, but not by much and they’ve done splendidly with spreads. Matt Chapman continues to lead the way with a superb .364 batting average, second-best in the majors.
4. Baltimore Orioles (16-8, runline: 13-11)
Another surprise entry into the top five is the Baltimore Orioles, who placed seventh the last time we performed the exercise. It’s a good battle between this club and the previous one on the list, but Baltimore hasn’t been as successful at covering spreads. Cedric Mullins is having a whale of a time stealing bases so far, having robbed 10 already.
5. Chicago Cubs (13-9, runline: 14-8)
Another twist in the rankings as the Cubs are behind the next team on this list in the NL Central but are more successful ATS. Don’t look now but Chicago ranks only behind Tampa Bay in batting average and is fourth in stolen bases. Nico Hoerner sports an outrageous .347 batting average. They’ve been a successful road team so far, going 6-2 away from Wrigley Field.
6. Milwaukee Brewers (16-9, runline: 14-11)
Some might cry foul because even though the Brewers failed three more spreads than the Cubs, they’ve played three more games. But hey, to rank highly a team has to take care of its business. Still, sixth overall is a strong rank, not to mention their fifth place for total wins earned by the pitching rotation. Wade Miley is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA.
7. Atlanta Braves (16-8, runline: 12-12)
Yes, a club with a higher winning percentage than the Blue Jays, the Cubs, and Brewers sits below them. But look at the runline: 12-12. The team leads the NL East and has far and away the best run differential than any of its divisional rivals. They’re a good bet on the moneyline. We’ll give them that much. Through five games, starter Spencer Strider has a beguiling 1.80 ERA.
8. Minnesota Twins (14-11, runline: 14-11)
One can make the case that the Twins are the weakest of the clubs in the top 10. To their credit, they lead the AL Central, but the division as a whole is pretty meandering. Case in point: Cleveland is second and at game under .500. Minnesota does rank second in the majors for total strikeouts with a considerable 232 of them. Pablo Lopez leads with 39 of them.
9. Texas Rangers (14-10, runline: 13-11)
The next two teams have identical records for outright wins and losses and against the runline. We slot the Rangers just head based on their superior run differential of +56, which happens to be the second-best in the entire league. Right fielder Adolis Garcia has a lot to do with that, as he leads the club with 29 RBIs.
10. New York Mets (14-11, runline: 13-10)
Sliding just inside the 10 are the Mets. It’s still early days in the 2023 season, so the fact that they trail the Braves in the NL East by only two games may not mean much a few months from now, but they’d sure like to kick things up a notch before not too long. The schedule has been tough, with far more road games played so far. Not helping matters are Max Scherzer’s suspension and Justin Verlander’s injury.
11. Houston Astros (13-11, runline: 14-10)
The defending champions begin their ascent in the rankings. They sit just outside the top 10, but one reckons it won’t be long before they crack it. A month into the campaign, they aren’t as dominant as in years past. Curiously, they’ve been better away from home (8-4) than in front of their fans (6-7). Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are doing the heavy lifting to provide the team with the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors.
12. Cincinnati Reds (10-15, runline: 16-9)
This is where tough decisions need to be made in a power rankings exercise. The Reds are playing pretty mediocre baseball, hence their fourth-place in the NL Central, five games under .500. So how can they be as high as 12th? A terrific 16-9 record ATS, that’s how. Having the single-worst away record in MLB isn’t doing them any favours though (1-9).
13. Arizona Diamondbacks (13-12, runline: 14-11)
We admit that 13th is a bit low for a side at the heels a division leader, but while they can be trusted with spreads, at least to a degree, they’re a fifty-fifty club when it comes to outright winning and losing. One thing is for sure, they can rely on opportunities to bat runners in since they rank fourth in hits with 220. Corbin Carroll leads the team in that category with 28.
14. Los Angeles Dodgers (13-11, runline: 11-13)
This is our “benefit of the doubt” ranking for this edition. They honestly aren’t much better than last time (15th) but they didn’t get worse either. Their 14th place has a whiff of anticipation that the team will really get going in the weeks to come. They lead the NL West, so it isn’t. as if they aren’t doing anything this season.
15. Boston Red Sox (13-13, runline: 15-11)
When playing .500 baseball lands you last place in your division, you know it’s a tough crowd. Such is the Red Sox experience in 2023. Even so, 15-11 ATS looks mighty fine if one plays attention to them strictly from a betting perspective. The offence is doing most of the lifting, with the team hitting the fifth most home runs and third most runs batted in. Rafael Devers has already gifted fans 9 home run balls.
16. New York Yankees (14-11, runline: 12-13)
While one can expect the New York pinstripes to put up a fight to the bitter end for better positioning, their efforts against the runline have left to be desired, hence they open up the bottom half of our rankings. Pitching is strong as the rotation has the third-lowest ERA. Gerrit Cole is 4-0, has pitched 34 innings and and has an insane 0.79 ERA.
17. Detroit Tigers (9-13, runline: 13-9)
For our purposes, the Detroit Tigers are the best worst team in MLB. 9-13 isn’t good and they tussle in what looks like the worst division in baseball at this stage. On the flip side, they cover the majority of their spreads, and that counts for a lot around these parts. A -43 run differential is pretty bad though.
18. Washington Nationals (8-14, runline: 13-9)
This is the last of the teams with the dichotomy of poor a record in the standings but solid performance ATS. They’re way behind all their rivals in the NL East, paving the way to another last-place finish in 2023, but so far they’ve kept betters relatively happy with a 13-9 record against the runline.
19. Seattle Mariners (11-12, runline: 11-12)
This is what playing mostly .500 baseball in both the standings and against spreads gets you. Questions can be asked about 2022’s pleasant surprise. Are they in fact barely passable or is their a brilliant run of wins in them that will awaken a ferocious opponent down the line? The club is fifth in saves with eight, and closer Paul Sewald has seven of those.
20. San Francisco Giants (10-13, runline: 11-12)
This team has failed to impress much through the first month of the campaign. That said, they’re only 2.5 games out of first place in the NL West and ride a five-game winning streak, so maybe the corner is being turned as we speak. They have hit 36 home runs though, good for fourth. Thairo Estrada leads with a .326 batting average.
21. San Diedo Padres (12-12, runline: 11-14)
As we enter the bottom 10, it becomes a process of elimination. Who is covering a little bit more than all the other remaining teams? Who has suffered fewer failures to cover? And so on and so forth. The Padres are a bit like the Mariners insofar as we’re wondering when the magical 2022 club will show up. Xander Bogaerts is hitting the lights out so far with a .326 batting average.
22. St. Louis Cardinals (9-15, runline: 10-14)
Another team suffering a significant drop off from last year, the Cardinals are the basement dwellers of the NL Central through one month. They’re not very good at preventing opponents from hitting, but they can hit darn well judging by their fourth-best batting average. Paul Goldschmidt leads the club in that regard with .315.
23. Chicago White Sox (7-18, runline: 10-15)
Getting torched by the Blue Jays this week didn’t help with their efforts to climb the ranks but at the time of writing, they are the last team to have at least a double-digit figure of covered spreads with 10. Their strength is strikeouts, as their rotation has tallied the third most in the majors with 231. Dylan Cease is their ace with 34 of them and a 2.73 ERA.
24. Los Angeles Angels (12-12, runline 9-15)
Again, the process of elimination. The Angels are now the side with the best win-loss record despite not having covered at least 10 times. Yes, we’re really splitting hairs at this point but hey, it’s the bottom 10. Still, it’s a bit sad to see the squad with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani ranked so low.
25. Miami Marlins (12-12, runline: 9-15)
We’re not sure what the Marlins do that would be considered particularly impressive. They get blown out a lot, given their second-worst run differential in the National League (-37). They also don’t have a batter hitting .300, although Bryan De La Cruz comes close at .295. Still, the club hovers around .500 so they keep things respectable down in Miami.
26. Cleveland Guardians (12-13, runline: 8-17)
More hair-splitting. Interestingly, despite Cleveland’s rather mediocre start to the 2023 campaign, they rank second in MLB for stolen bases with 31. Steven Kwan has seven all to himself and Andres Gimenez has six.
27. Philadelphia Phillies (11-13, runline: 9-15)
How the mighty have fallen. That’s harsh. Philly is only two games under .500 and possesses the tools to turn things around. Lastly, we’re only a month into the season. Even so, 27th is pretty bad. They’ll need to fix pitching and defence, having given up the third most runs in the National League.
28. Colorado Rockies (8-18, runline: 9-17)
The club with the worst run differential in the National League (-47) starts the bottom three countdown. It’s been a rocky start for Colorado (see what we did there?). They do have a good hitter in Kris Bryant, who sports a .312 batting average so far and .452 slugging percentage.
29. Kansas City Royals (6-18, runline: 9-15)
The “phew, that was close” spot goes to the Kansas City Royals. They’re not good, period. How does a team start a season 1-12 at home? Their -53 run differential is pretty brutal too, but not as bad…
30. Oakland Athletics (5-19, runline: 9-15)
…as a -104 run differential. Wow. They have three batters who have stepped up to the plate at least 60 times but don’t have a hitting average of at least .200. Another has 76 attempts with .211 to show for it. We hate to say that a team earns last place, but this isn’t looking good at all.
