Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Off having a four-game winning streak snapped Sunday, the Blue Jays continue their homestand Monday by welcoming the Miami Marlins for the first of three games. Behind rookie star Trey Yesavage, Toronto is a -165 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5.
Betting Analysis
The Marlins have an interesting collection of talent led by shortstop Otto Perez, who leads the majors in batting average, second baseman Xavier Edwards, outfielders Owen Caissie and Kyle Stowers, and pitchers Sandy Alcantara, the former NL Cy Young Award winner (set for Tuesday), and Eury Perez (Wednesday), among others. But is it a playoff team?
Miami has missed the past two postseasons and certainly will not win the NL East, so it’s wild card or bust. The team is +1200 to reach the playoffs with no at -3000. Maybe if ownership was willing to spend some money this summer via trade, but that has almost never been the case in South Florida. The team has barely an imprint on that area and doesn’t draw well, so there’s not a ton of money coming in. Monday starts a nine-game trip for the Marlins. They are above .500 at home but one of the worst road teams in the majors at 7-14.
Toronto took two of three at Miami last season, while the Marlins swept three games at Rogers Centre in their last visit in 2024.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins finished off a three-game home sweep of the New York Mets on Sunday with a 4-0 win on a walk-off grand slam by Heriberto Hernández in the bottom of the ninth, his first career walk-off hit. It was the first walk-off grand slam in a 0-0 MLB game since September 2013. Miami swept a series for the first time since its opening three games against Colorado and held the Mets to a total of two runs and 11 hits. Marlins third baseman Connor Norby left Sunday’s game in the sixth inning with elbow discomfort.
Miami starts journeyman righty Janson Junk (2-5, 5.07 ERA) on Monday. The 30-year-old had been solid until the past two outings, both losses in which Junk allowed a combined 15 runs and 18 hits (four homers) over 10.2 innings. Junk hasn’t personally won since April 28 at the Dodgers. He has thrown 6.2 career innings over two appearances vs. Toronto without a decision and 4.05 ERA. No Blue Jays batter has more than four at-bats off him or has homered. Miami is 3-9 in its past 12 vs. the American League.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s four-game winning streak was snapped Sunday in a 4-1 home loss to Pittsburgh in which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left in the bottom of the fifth inning after being hit by a pitch on the inside of his right elbow. X-rays were negative, but he might miss a game or two. Lenyn Sosa came in to run for Guerrero and took over at first base. And ace Dylan Cease left in the fifth inning due to left hamstring discomfort, so a less-than-ideal day for sure.
AL Rookie of the Year candidate Trey Yesavage (2-1, 1.07 ERA) starts on the mound Monday. The 22-year-old was brilliant last time out at Yankee Stadium, shutting out New York on two hits over six innings with eight strikeouts and no walks. Yesavage has made eight career regular-season starts in the big leagues, and his 1.83 ERA is the second-best through a pitcher’s first eight starts with the Blue Jays behind a 1.48 ERA from Jeff Musselman in 1987-88. Monday will mark Yesavage’s first career start vs. Miami. The under is 5-2 in the Jays’ past seven.
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