Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: ALCS Game 6 Odds, Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to push the ALCS to a deciding Game 7 when they host the Seattle Mariners for Game 6 on Sunday night.
Toronto looked like they were in a great position in Game 5 on Friday in Seattle. The Jays led 2-1 heading into the eighth inning before the Mariners cranked a solo home run followed by a grand slam.
A scoreless ninth inning sealed Seattle’s 6-2 win and gave the Mariners a 3-2 series lead as the ALCS shifts back to Toronto for Game 6 on Sunday and a possible Game 7 on Monday.
The Blue Jays are -125 favourites to win Game 6 on the MLB odds, with the total pegged at 7.5.
Betting Analysis
Despite trailing the ALCS 3-2, Jays fans should feel good heading into Game 6. Toronto has been one of the best home teams in the majors in 2025, posting a 56-29 record at Rogers Centre.
Seattle won the first two games of this series in Toronto, but keep in mind they’re only 42-43 in away dates this season.
It’s also worth noting, these teams absolutely smash the ball when they meet. The Over has hit nine of 11 combined regular season and playoff meetings between the Jays and Mariners in 2025, including the last four games of the ALCS.
The series line has flip-flopped all over the place. Toronto opened the ALCS as a small favourite on the MLB futures board, but lagged as +475 underdogs entering Game 3. The series was a pick’em ahead of Game 5, but Seattle is now listed as a -325 favourite, while the Blue Jays are +260 underdogs.
With the Dodgers sweeping Milwaukee in the NLCS, L.A. is a -210 favourite to repeat as World Series champions, followed by Seattle at +225 and Toronto at +850.
ALCS MVP odds have Cal Raleigh leading the way at +230. The shortest odds for a Blue Jays player is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +425.
Seattle Mariners
After dropping Games 3 and 4 at home by a combined score of 21-6, Seattle bounced back in a major way in Game 5. The Mariners trailed by a run entering the eighth inning before Raleigh hit a solo home run to tie things up, his fourth dinger of the postseason. Eugenio Suarez became the hero with a grand slam to cap off a five-run inning that won the game and put the Mariners one win away from their first trip to the World Series in franchise history.
The historical stats lean towards Seattle. In any best-of-7 playoff series tied 2-2, the team that wins Game 5 has gone on to win the series 46 of 67 times (68.9 per cent). In the current 2-3-2 series format, teams that win Game 5 at home to take a 3-2 lead on the road have won the series 20 of 33 times (60.6 per cent).
Toronto Blue Jays
There’s a couple key takeaways from Toronto’s side for Game 5. First, it’s George Springer leaving the game after taking a fastball to his right knee in the seventh inning. Fortunately, X-rays came back negative and he’s expected to play Game 6.
The bigger storyline, however, is manager John Schneider’s decision to go with Brendon Little in the eighth inning over usual closers Jeff Hoffman or Seranthony Dominguez. Little, who had one previous appearance in the series in Game 1, promptly allowed a leadoff homer to Raleigh before walking the next two batters. He left the game after essentially setting up the fiasco that became the Suarez grand slam.
The Blue Jays are going back to rookie Trey Yesavage for Game 6. The 22-year-old is making his third start of the playoffs on six days rest. Yesavage dominated in his first postseason appearance against the Yankees, but struggled in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Mariners, giving up four earned runs, four hits and four walks over 4.0 innings pitched.
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