Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
For the first time since 2016, the Blue Jays play in the American League Championship Series as they host the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of their best-of-7 set on Sunday night.
Toronto is -158 on the MLB odds for the opener and the total is 7.5.
Betting Analysis
Kudos to you if this spring you predicted a Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS because certainly very few noted experts did so after both franchises missed the post-season in 2024. In late March, Seattle was priced around +1100 for the pennant and the Blue Jays +2500. On this series line, Toronto is the -125 favourite and Seattle +105.
The Mariners are the only active MLB franchise to never reach a World Series, and I think that drought continues. I lean Blue Jays in seven – that it goes the full seven is a +190 co-favourite along with six games. That it ends in a sweep either way is a +650 longshot.
My favourite play is probably the Blue Jays Game 1/series double at +140. That Toronto loses the opener but still wins the series is a +550 longshot. Seattle for the double is +250. The Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez are both +600 favourites to lead the series in hits. But Toronto’s Daulton Varsho is the +325 leader for most RBI. To no surprise, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh is the +225 favourite for most homers. He led the majors with 60 this year in the regular season, an MLB record for a catcher and switch-hitter and probably is named AL MVP in November.
Toronto won the regular-season series 4-2 but was 1-2 at Rogers Centre when the M’s visited in April.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle beat visiting Detroit, 3-2 in 15 innings in the winner-take-all Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday, but the M’s also used just about every pitcher on the roster so that has left the Game 1 starter up for grabs as of publication.
Honestly, at this point starting pitchers might not matter that much (unlike the regular season) because many managers have such a quick hook. The Mariners generally win with pitching and defence.
Not a great lineup but it got much better ahead of the trade deadline in acquiring sluggers Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez from Arizona in separate deals. Naylor is from Mississauga and stellar setup man Matt Brash is from Kingston.
Bryce Miller is the expected Game 1 starter on the mound, but again, that might be in name only. He was the only healthy starter who did not pitch in Seattle’s Game 5 win over Detroit. Miller was 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA in 18 regular-season starts with some injury issues. He started Game 4 of the ALDS in Motown and allowed two runs over 4.1 innings. Miller faced the Blue Jays on May 11 in Seattle and allowed seven runs over five in a loss.
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle’s Bryce Miller is arguably the worst starting pitcher on either ALCS roster, so the Blue Jays simply have to take advantage Sunday. There is no excuse for losing Game 1 after Seattle blew out the bullpen on Friday in Detroit and then had to travel a fair amount.
The big question for the Jays is whether star shortstop Bo Bichette, a pending free agent, will be available off a knee injury that has kept him out since early September. The hope is yes, but he might have to DH, which would mean George Springer moving from there to the outfield. That would bump either Anthony Santander or Nathan Lukes to the bench.
The other roster decision likely comes down to Ty France or infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa. If Bichette is ready, it probably means IKF is off the roster. France, a former Mariner, is coming off a left oblique injury but was healthy enough for the ALDS. The team opted to keep him off that roster.
It likely will be Kevin Gausman on the mound in Game 1. He also started the opener of the ALDS vs. the Yankees and got the win, allowing one run over 5.2 innings. Gausman’s lone 2025 start vs. the Mariners was in Seattle on May 8 and he won in allowing three earned over 5.1 innings.
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