The Cleveland Guardians stunned Tampa Bay 7-3 in Game 1, rallying from a 2-0 deficit and scoring five times late against a Rays staff that had barely been touched in the division series.

Nathaniel Lowe delivered the go-ahead two-run single, while Jose Ramirez had three hits and added another insurance run in the ninth.

Cleveland has now won four straight postseason games and will be hoping to take a commanding 2-0 series lead before heading home for three (if needed).

The Rays are -135 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 6.5.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

The biggest betting question is whether Tampa Bay can immediately recover from a bullpen collapse.

The Rays led 2-0 through five innings before Cleveland eventually broke through for 14 hits. Five Guardians relievers, meanwhile, combined for five innings of one-run ball.

Game 2 should again favour pitching early, with both Parker Messick and Freddy Peralta carrying strong numbers.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland’s rookie left-hander, Messick, posted a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 193 strikeouts during the regular season, including a 2.22 ERA on the road. Tampa Bay hitters are just 15-for-73 against him over four previous meetings.

The Rays’ biggest right-handed bats, Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz, are just a combined 4-for-23 against the Southpaw.

We already saw the Rays’ concerning regular-season numbers vs. left-handed pitching realized in Game 1, sputtering after a two-run opening frame.

The concern for Messick is length. He has a 5.40 postseason ERA across 6.2 innings and is working on four days’ rest after throwing 65 pitches Thursday.

Tampa Bay Rays

Freddy Peralta’s full-season 4.42 ERA is misleading because he became a different pitcher after arriving from the Mets. Peralta posted a 3.25 ERA across 10 starts for the Rays and was dominant down the stretch, recording a 0.96 ERA over five September outings.

Cleveland hitters are only 7-for-38 lifetime against him and have yet to record an extra-base hit.

His changeup is another important angle. Peralta throws it about 23 per cent of the time, and Cleveland ranked 28th in baseball against that pitch this season.

Tampa Bay also needs more from its middle order after wasting too many scoring chances on Monday.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Guardians vs. Rays?

Cleveland deserves plenty of credit for stealing Game 1, but I trust Tampa Bay to respond at home.

Messick has matched up well with the Rays, yet he is working on shorter rest and may not provide much length. That could eventually expose a Cleveland bullpen that has already been heavily leaned on throughout October.

Peralta, meanwhile, is in excellent form and owns the pitch mix to attack one of Cleveland’s biggest weaknesses.

I expect another close game, but this time Tampa Bay finishes it.

Best bet: Rays moneyline (-130)

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