Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -145 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
Cleveland has an interesting trend going as it has reached the postseason in every even-numbered year since 2016 but hasn’t made it in an odd-numbered season since 2017. The Guardians are what they always seem to be: Good pitching and defence but rather limited offensively outside of All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez, an annual AL MVP candidate.
This writer expects Detroit to win the AL Central this year, but the Guardians are good enough to qualify for an AL Wild-Card spot and are +110 to make the postseason with no at -130. It will certainly help matters when former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber gets back from Tommy John surgery around midseason.
After these three games, the Blue Jays visit Cleveland for three from June 24-26 and that concludes the season series. The Guardians won the 2024 series 4-2 but were 1-2 at Rogers Centre. Ramirez hit just .235 with a homer and three RBIs in the series. Teammate and Guardians leadoff hitter Steven Kwan hit .462 with two homers and four RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit .333 with two homers and three RBIs for the Jays. George Springer was an ugly 2-for-20 with nine strikeouts vs. Cleveland pitching in 2024.
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland has followed a three-game losing streak with three straight wins after a 4-3 home victory in 10 innings over Minnesota on Thursday. Star Jose Ramirez became the first player in franchise history to reach 250 career homers and 250 steals (first primary third baseman in MLB history to do it) and scored the winning run in the 10th.
The Guardians bullpen has been used a lot this week so some guys may not be available tonight – but closer Emmanuel Clase should be. However, after a Cy Young calibre-2024 season, he has a 6.75 ERA and already has allowed twice as many earned runs in 2025 than in ’24.
Lefty Logan Allen (1-2, 4.21 ERA) is Friday’s starting pitcher. The 26-year-old has had three good outings this season and two poor ones, and he was rocked last time out for seven runs over 4.1 innings against a good Red Sox lineup. Allen has been much better on the road at 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts overall vs. the Blue Jays. Ernie Clement is 2-for-2 career off Allen, both doubles. George Springer is 2-for-6 off him with a solo homer.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have followed a three-game skid with back-to-back home wins against Boston. Daulton Varsho hit his second homer in two days on Thursday – Varsho just made his season debut off the injured list on Tuesday. Good chance that stellar set-up man Yimi Garcia, yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings, is unavailable after pitching the past two games.
Righty Chris Bassitt (2-2, 2.62 ERA) takes the hill for the Blue Jays. Certainly Toronto is not thinking about trading away pieces this early in the season, but the pending free agent Bassitt would bring back a nice haul this summer from a contender if he keeps pitching this well — and the Jays put him on the market if they are struggling. Bassitt is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two home starts in 2025 with 17 strikeouts and four walks over 11 innings. The 36-year-old, who is from Ohio (Toledo), is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career starts vs. Cleveland. Carlos Santana has seen him the most of an Guardians batter, going 3-for-11 with two homers and a double. Jose Ramirez is 1-for-8 off Bassitt with three strikeouts.
CLE
TOR