San Francisco Giants vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -135 favourite with a total of 8.5 runs on the MLB odds.
Giants vs. Jays July 18 Betting Analysis
San Francisco looks for its first playoff appearance since 2021. The Giants are stuck in the wrong division with the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers, so San Fran essentially enters every season these days knowing it can’t win the NL West and its only path to the postseason is via NL Wild-Card spot. The Giants are just outside the National League playoff field currently but just a half game behind San Diego for the final spot. To make the playoffs, they are -110 with no the same price.
There may not be a bigger trade ahead of the July 31 trade deadline than the Giants landing All-Star third baseman/DH Rafael Devers from Boston in mid-June to boost a mediocre lineup. San Francisco has the starting pitching led by Logan Webb and former Blue Jays lefty and AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (having a huge bounce-back season from injury) to contend if they get the hitting. Devers mostly plays DH on the West Coast because San Francisco has a Gold Glove third baseman in former Blue Jay Matt Chapman.
Toronto visited beautiful Oracle Park last season and won two of three. The Giants were last at Rogers Centre in 2023 and lost two of three. This is the only series of the year between the clubs.
San Francisco Giants
This starts a very tough nine-game stretch against potential playoff teams for the Giants with a trip to Atlanta following and then three vs. the New York Mets. San Francisco is 24-25 away and entered the break on a two-game skid. The Giants badly need a lefty reliever via trade after putting Erik Miller (4-1, 1.50 ERA) on the injured list earlier this month with elbow trouble. The team’s big trade pickup so far, slugger Rafael Devers, has been playing through a groin issue and lower back inflammation since coming over from the Red Sox. That may explain why Devers is hitting only .202 with two homers and 34 strikeouts in 25 games since the trade. San Francisco is just 11-14 in those. The break probable helped Devers more than any Giants player.
It is expected to be future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the mound Friday. This almost surely is the last season for the three-time Cy Young Award winner and one-time AL MVP as at age 42, he’s a brutal 0-7 with a 4.70 ERA. In his career against Toronto, Verlander is 4-7 with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts … with two of his three career no-hitters. One was Sept. 1, 2019, while with Houston and the other May 7, 2011, while with Detroit. Geroge Springer has seen Verlander more than any Blue Jays batter and is 6-for-16 off him with two homers and six Ks. The Giants are 4-1 in their past five on the road.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays, who have lost three of four following a 10-game winning streak, come out of the break atop the AL East by two games but +170 second-favourites to win it behind the second-place Yankees (-120). No doubt those two clubs will be vying for the same trade candidates ahead of the July 31 deadline. To simply make the playoffs, Toronto is -425. The team’s updated over-under season win total is 88.5.. Right-hander Chris Bassitt (8-4, 4.12 ERA) was a potential trade candidate entering this season because the 36-year-old is set for free agency next winter, but obviously the Blue Jays will be buyers not sellers at the deadline.
Bassitt has been much better at home this year, going 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts compared to a 5.66 ERA away. Just to keep him fresh, the Jays gave Bassitt one inning of relief against the A’s last Sunday before the break. Essentially a bullpen session but in a game. Bassitt has spent most of his career in the American League but has still started vs. the Giants seven times, going 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA. Rafael Devers has a great track record off Bassitt at 8-for-17 with three homers and two doubles, but those all came while Devers played with Boston. The Jays are 7-0 in their past seven at home.
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TOR