Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: Odds, Prediction
This edition of MLB Friday night on Apple TV features two clubs desperate to reverse their fortunes.
The Arizona Diamondbacks arrive in Cincinnati sputtering to a 3-7 record over their last 10 games. Arizona’s offence has bottomed out, suffering three shutout losses in their last eight outings, including back-to-back blankings by the Miami Marlins. Now sitting at 34-34 and third in the NL West, they need a spark.
The Reds’ start to the month is just as ugly, carrying a 2-7 June record after dropping three consecutive series. Returning home at 32-35 after surrendering a walk-off home run on Wednesday in San Diego, the Reds find themselves buried at the bottom of the competitive NL Central.
This game is hovering around a pick’em on the MLB odds, with the total set at 9.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Reds have been an over machine this season, with that bet hitting in 42 of their 67 games. Great American Ball Park is notorious for yielding home runs, and with Friday’s forecast calling for a balmy 28°C (83°F) with partly cloudy skies, the environment favours a high-scoring environment.
Arizona is an impressive 39-29 against the runline this year, making their +142 price tag to cover very enticing against a historically vulnerable opponent.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The visiting D-Backs get a psychological lift Friday with the reinstatement of 23-year-old former top prospect Jordan Lawlar, who has been sidelined since early April.
On the mound, Arizona starts their most reliable arm this season: veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been phenomenal, pitching to a 2.52 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 78.2 innings. He has been particularly dominant under the lights, sporting a stellar 1.68 night ERA.
The D-Backs pack an elite punch against left-handed pitching, ranking third in MLB with a .770 OPS. Leading the charge is superstar Corbin Carroll, who is hitting .280 with 11 home runs overall, but boasts a ridiculous .410 average and a 1.152 OPS specifically against southpaws.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are expected to activate several players on Friday, including Jose Trevino, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Emilio Pagan and Pierce Johnson. While that aids their depth, Trevino and Hayes have struggled with the bat when healthy, and Pagan carries a 6.43 ERA.
Crucially, the lineup remains without its engine, Elly De La Cruz, who hasn’t played since May 31. Without his team-leading .280 average, .855 OPS and 2.2 bWAR, the offence has looked deflated. Young slugger Sal Stewart leads the team with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs but is just 7-for-34 to open the month.
Left-hander Nic Lodolo gets the start, but he has failed to replicate his excellent 2025 form. Lodolo has been hit hard to the tune of a 5.51 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, giving up eight home runs in just 32.2 innings. Lefties are oddly tattooing him for a .364 average, while righties have hit seven of his eight allowed long balls.
Worse yet, the Reds’ bullpen behind him ranks 29th in baseball with a 5.13 ERA, giving up late-game leads in four of their last five matchups.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Diamondbacks vs. Reds?
While both teams are struggling, Arizona matches up beautifully on Friday night. They feature the far more reliable starting pitcher in Rodriguez and are primed for positive offensive regression against a struggling left-hander after consecutive shutout losses.
Carroll, Marte and Nolan Arenado should expose Lodolo’s fly-ball tendencies early, and the scrappy bats of Gabriel Moreno, Ildemaro Vargas and Geraldo Perdomo will make life miserable for a depleted Cincinnati bullpen.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+142)
