Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: Odds, Prediction
The Atlanta Braves (62-43, 1st in NL East) and the New York Mets (44-62, 5th in NL East) meet for the eighth time this season on Monday, with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Despite where each team stands, it’s the Mets who have had the upper hand in this season series, taking four of the seven meetings.
The Braves have been hot since the All-Star break, going 7-3, while the Mets have gone 4-5. The Mets did avoid a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers yesterday, and they will look to carry the momentum of the seven-run outburst they had between the sixth and seventh innings into this game.
This game is a pick’em on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The most recent series between these two, in early July in Atlanta, was a high-scoring one, with 49 runs scored across three games. In fact, five of the seven games between these teams have cleared the Over/Under on the run total this season.
Injury news has tipped the scales further in this one. Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr. has been activated from a hamstring injury that had him sidelined since June 9. And on the Mets side, Juan Soto was added to the IL on Friday due to a calf strain that will keep him out for weeks.
Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley got to play hero in the Braves’ 11-inning win over the Orioles on Sunday, hitting the winning RBI double in the top of the 11th.
Veteran southpaw Martin Perez takes the ball on Monday, and he has been solid, pitching to a 3.38 ERA in 85.1 innings. What bodes well for Perez here is that he is facing a Mets lineup that ranks 24th in OPS at home and 25th in OPS vs. left-handed pitching.
What’s problematic here is that the Mets’ lineup has a strong track record against him, collecting a .304 AVG and .835 OPS in 125 at-bats. Perez has also struggled on the road, with a 4.15 ERA.
At the plate, the trio of Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Austin Riley have been red-hot at the plate, combining for 11 home runs and 26 RBIs since the break. They will be opposed by Mets rookie southpaw, Zac Thornton.
New York Mets
The 24-year-old rookie Thornton has been nearly untouchable in his first four career MLB starts, pitching to a 1.93 ERA and .86 WHIP.
Thornton holds the advantage in the fact the Braves have never seen him before, and this Braves offence has also been middling in this exact situation – 13th in road OPS and 18th in OPS vs LHP.
However, other than a solid chase rate and good command, Thornton’s underlying numbers are not as promising as the short-term results. He doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t induce much chase or whiff, gets hit hard and doesn’t induce many groundballs.
With an expected ERA of 4.21, I think we see Thornton look more human in this spot.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Braves vs. Mets?
With the way this season series has trended, with the way the Mets’ bats woke up late in Sunday’s game and with Thornton due for some regression against a hot Braves team, my favourite play is the Over on the run total.
As far a side, I will take the better team in the Braves behind a crafty veteran. I think the return of Acuna will send a jolt through the lineup, while the absence of Soto will be felt in key moments for the Mets.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 total runs (-112)
ATL
NYM