Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: Odds, Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays can punch their first ticket to the ALCS since 2016 on Tuesday night with a win in Game 3 of the ALDS at the Yankees, but New York is a -145 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
This would be the first of four Division Series to end should Toronto finish things off with a three-game sweep as the ALDS shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Tuesday night. Then the Blue Jays would get another decent amount of time off waiting for the other ALDS to end with it tied 1-1 and Seattle visiting Detroit for Game 3 on Tuesday afternoon ahead of this matchup. So that series is guaranteed to extend to at least Wednesday. There are no NLDS games on Tuesday.
This will mark the second elimination game of the playoff for the Yankees, who won Game 3 of their Wild-Card Series at home last round vs. Boston behind a dominant performance from rookie pitcher Cam Schittler. He’s scheduled for Wednesday’s Game 4 if necessary, but surely it will be all hands on deck out of the bullpen on Tuesday if need be.
Like most teams, the Yankees were much better at home (50-31) during the regular season than away. New York has lost eight of nine in Toronto this season, including the first two of the ALDS, but is 4-2 at home against the Blue Jays. Toronto’s 23 runs in the ALDS so far are the most by any team in the opening two games of a post-season series. The Yankees held the previous mark of 22 runs in the first two games of the 2020 Wild-Card Round against Cleveland.
On the updated series line, Toronto is -600 and New York +440.
Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday marks Toronto’s first road game since Sept. 21 in Kansas City, and the team was 40-41 away during the regular season. In dominating the first two games of this series, the Jays are hitting a collective .392 against Yankees pitching with an OPS of 1.217. Daulton Varsho (.750, two HR, four RBI), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.667, two HR, six RBI) and Alejandro Kirk (.333, two HR, three RBI) have done the most damage. Guerrero had the franchise’s first-ever post-season grand slam in Game 2. At one point, the Jays scored 20 consecutive runs between Yankee runs — the first time a team has done that within a playoff series.
There were some questions about the back end of the Toronto bullpen entering the post-season but since the team hasn’t played a close game yet, those remain. It’s righty and former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber on the mound Tuesday. The Jays opted to use rookie Trey Yesavage in Game 2 and save the veteran Bieber for the “hostile environment” of Yankee Stadium in this one. Bieber was 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven regular-season starts for Toronto after coming over in trade from Cleveland. He made three career playoff starts for that franchise and was 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA. Bieber didn’t see the Yankees in 2025. Aaron Judge is just 1-for-13 career off him in the regular season with eight strikeouts.
New York Yankees
In post-season history, all teams taking a 2-0 lead in any best-of-5 series have gone on to win that series 80 of 90 times (88.9 per cent). In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams to win both Games 1 and 2 at home have advanced 31 of 34 times (91.2 per cent), including 20 sweeps. But the most recent comeback in both situations came by the Yankees when they rallied past Cleveland in the 2017 ALDS. There is a lot of chatter that Yanks manager Aaron Boone will be fired, though, if the team is swept this time. New York had ended the regular season with an eight-game winning streak to tie for the AL East title (but lost the tiebreaker).
Superstar Aaron Judge is 8-for-18 in these playoffs but has just one extra-base hit. That was an eighth-inning double in Game 1 when the game was out of hand. Lefty Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA during RS) takes the mound Tuesday. The 32-year-old took a no-decision last week vs. Boston in the Wild-Card Series, allowing three runs over six. He was better at home during the regular season (10-4, 2.98 ERA) and made two overall starts vs. Toronto in 2025, going 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hammers him career, going 10-for-17 with three doubles and a homer.
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