Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is down 1-0 in the series and a +120 underdog on the MLB odds.
Betting Analysis
This is only the second full season of MLB’s Wild Card series round. Last season, every team that won the first game of the best-of-3 also won the series with three of the four winning in a sweep. That includes Seattle, which took both games in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are now 1-5 all-time in Wild Card games after losing Game 1 in the Twin Cities on Tuesday, 3-1. That lone victory was a one-game playoff vs. Baltimore in 2016.
It was no sure thing that young Twins infielder Royce Lewis would even be on the 2023 Wild Card roster due to injury as he hadn’t played for a couple of weeks. But the former No. 1 overall draft pick not only was on the roster, he accounted for all three runs Tuesday with a two-run homer in the first and a solo shot in the third. The Jays actually outhit the Twins 6-5 but once again couldn’t get the key knock as Minnesota ended an MLB-record 18-game playoff losing streak.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays opted not to start Whit Merrifield in the 3-1 loss in Game 1, using Cavan Biggio at second base and batting him fifth. Merrifield did pinch-hit. Kevin Kiermaier was 2-for-3 and had the lone RBI. Right-hander Jose Berrios (11-12, 3.65 ERA, who played for the Twins from his 2016 rookie season until he was acquired by Toronto around the 2021 trade deadline, gets the call on the mound for the Jays on Wednesday. Chris Bassitt made a late-season case to be the No. 2 in this series behind Kevin Gausman but is slotted for Game 3 if necessary. Berrios lost his final two regular-season starts and allowed exactly four runs in each, but both were against the Yankees. His lone start vs. Minnesota was May 28 at Target Field and Berrios didn’t allow a run over 5.2 innings in a victory. He is now 3-1 with 4.03 ERA in five career starts against his former team. Carlos Correa is 4-for-14 career off Berrios with a double. Wednesday will mark Berrios’ third career playoff start and fourth appearance. He is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings, all with the Twins.
Minnesota Twins
As we projected, the Twins left former All-Star outfielder Byron Buxton off the Wild Card series roster due to injury. Before Tuesday’s 3-1 victory, Minnesota hadn’t won a playoff game since Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS at Yankee Stadium. Minnesota’s last postseason series win was over Oakland in the 2002 ALDS. Right-hander Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA) takes the hill Tuesday off likely his best season since Gray’s heyday with the Oakland A’s in the early 2010s. His 2.79 ERA this year was the lowest by a Twins starter (minimum 20 starts) since Johan Santana (2.77) in 2006. Gray’s lone start in 2023 vs. the Blue Jays was June 9 in Toronto, and he took a no-decision after allowing one run over five. Matt Chapman is 3-for-8 career off him with a double and homer. This will be Gray’s fifth career playoff start and first since 2017 with the Yankees. He is 0-2 with a 2.95 ERA in his previous four, two with the A’s 2013 and two with New York in 2017.