Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: Odds, Prediction
It’s essentially a three-way race between the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees for the two AL wild card spots, so it’s a crucial trip to the Twin Cities for Toronto. The Jays dropped two of three games against the AL East-leading Rays this week and now need to pick up some wins after falling a half-game back of the second wild card spot. Minnesota has been out of playoff contention for a while, although they did just take two straight games in Chicago against the Cubs.
Toronto is a -160 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.5.
Betting Analysis
This is the second straight weekend the Blue Jays and Twins will meet. The Jays took two of three games in Toronto last weekend, the first time these teams have played each other in 2021. Sports Interaction bettors are favouring the Blue Jays at an 86 per cent rate, while 72 per cent of action is taking the Over.
Toronto has been comfortable on the road, going 10-3 straight up in their last 13 contests away from Rogers Centre. With how good the Blue Jays’ bats have been all year, it’s a bit surprising to see the total has gone Under in four of their last five games overall. Two of Toronto’s three games against the Twins last weekend also went Under.
Minnesota has struggled all year and they open this series having dropped seven of their last nine home games. The total has gone Over in five of the Twins’ last seven games overall and 14 of their last 19 against AL East opponents.
Toronto Blue Jays
There’s little room for error in Toronto’s push for the playoffs. Despite putting together a major league-best 16-4 record in September heading into Wednesday afternoon’s game against Tampa, the eventual 7-1 loss dropped the Jays just out of a wild card spot. After this road trip, Toronto will open a three-game home set against the Yankees and finish the regular season with a three-game home set against Baltimore. If the Jays can take at least two of three in Minnesota, that series against New York will likely determine the final AL wild card team.
Steven Matz will make his 28th start of the season to open the series on Thursday night. After a terrible season with the Mets last year, Matz has had a career resurgence with Toronto in 2021. He’s put together a 13-7 record with a 3.84 ERA and 1.315 WHIP. The southpaw thrower has 40 walks and 133 strikeouts over 140 2/3 total innings. Matz’s last start came last Saturday in a 6-2 win over Minnesota. He earned the win after throwing 5 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has been terrible from the start this year. They sit dead last in the AL Central and have the third-worst record in the AL, behind the Orioles and Rangers. The Twins have given up 169 more runs than Toronto this year and only the Orioles and Diamondbacks have allowed more runs.
Right-hander Michael Pineda will open the series on the mound for Minnesota. This will be his 21st appearance of the year and 20th start. Pineda comes in with a 7-8 record, posting a 3.74 ERA and 1.196 WHIP. Over 98 2/3 total innings of work, he’s recorded 20 walks and 81 strikeouts. His last start came on the road against Toronto in a 7-3 win last Friday. Pineda picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings. He allowed three runs (one earned) on three hits, with two walks and two strikeouts.
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