Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: Odds, Prediction
Minnesota is a -155 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
The Minnesota Twins tend to run hot and cold as a franchise, but that often is the case with small-market clubs. For example, the Twins three times in four seasons made the playoffs starting in 2017. But they have reached the postseason just once since: In 2023 when they won the AL Central. Last year, they finished with a winning record of 82-80 but were four spots out of the AL’s final Wild-Card spot.
It’s probably Wild-Card or bust again this year for Manager Rocco Baldelli’s club, and if the Twins miss out again he’s probably a goner. Detroit is running away with the AL Central title and Minnesota is second, six games back. But the team currently holds down the Junior Circuit’s top WC spot. To reach the postseason, the Twins are -200 and no is +165.
It’s a solid team 1-9 in the lineup and had two very good starting pitchers in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. We say had because Lopez, who was set to pitch in the series, landed on the IL this week and will miss up to 12 weeks. Huge loss. Jhoan Duran is one of the better closers in the AL. Just don’t expect a big trade acquisition as that’s not ownership’s style in terms of adding another potentially big salary. If it’s a pending free agent, maybe something can be done. Mostly, the team simply needs guys like injury-prone outfielder Byron Buxton and former All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa to stay healthy.
Minnesota won the 2024 season series 4-2 (2-1 at Target Field) and hasn’t lost one against the Blue Jays since 2021. The Twins visit Toronto from Aug. 25-27.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays finished a seven-game homestand at 6-1 following a 9-1 rout of an excellent Philadelphia team on Thursday. Toronto improved to 20-2 when it scores five or more runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-5, ending his 34-game streak of reaching base safely. That it was a blowout meant the Blue Jays didn’t have to use any high-leverage relievers. The Phillies scored six runs in the opening inning of the three-game series but scored just four the rest of the way.
It’s expected to be largely a bullpen game tonight with lefty Eric Lauer (1-1, 2.28 ERA) the likely starter. He has made seven appearances on the year and two starts, yet to go five full innings and qualify for a win as a starter. On the road, Lauer has a 2.13 ERA and batters are hitting only .163 off him. He has made two career starts vs. the Twins and is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA in 8.1 innings. Harrison Bader has seen him the most of any Minnesota batter, going 2-for-12 with a homer. The Jays are 11-16 on the road.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota finished a 10-game trip on Thursday by having a three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-3 blowout loss in Sacramento. But, again, sometimes blowouts can be a good thing as it resets a team’s bullpen, and the Twins didn’t use any key guys Thursday. All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa missed the final two of the A’s series with a back issue but likely returns to the lineup tonight.
Righty Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.48 ERA) is scheduled on the mound. Ober lost his season debut but hasn’t personally been beaten since and had a 2.76 ERA in May. He has been much better at home, going 2-0 with a 2.32 ERA. Ober has made five career starts vs. Toronto and is 2-2 with 2.70 ERA in 26.2 innings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 1-for-7 off him with four Ks. The only Blue Jays batter to go yard off Ober in a regular-season game is Ernie Clement (2-for-7, solo HR). The Twins are 18-8 at home.
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