Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals: Odds, Prediction
Toronto’s final regular-season road series of the season starts Friday night in Kansas City to open a three-game weekend set. The Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is three, and they are -140 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of nine runs. It’s an Apple TV+ exclusive in the USA.
Betting Analysis
Kansas City was an AL Wild-Card team in 2024 and swept Baltimore in that series to advance to the ALDS, where the Royals lost in four to the New York Yankees. They will not return to the postseason this year, putting the job of manager Matt Quatraro in jeopardy. The team has been hit pretty hard in the rotation by injuries this year. Ace Cole Ragans just returned from three months on IR on Wednesday.
Will this be the final season with Kansas City for future Hall of Famer catcher Salvador Perez? The 35-year-old is still playing at a high level with 29 homers and 92 RBIs, so it’s seems quite likely the team picks up its $13.5 million team option for 2026. Perez has said he wants to keep playing and only with the Royals.
Kansas City took two of three at Toronto from Aug. 1-3 and looks to win the season series a second year in a row after losing it the previous five occasions (didn’t play in the 2020 COVID season). Perez is batting .308 in the 2025 series with two solo homers. But All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. was fairly quiet in the first series at 2-for-11 with a homer. Bo Bichette hit .545 in the first series but remains on the injured list for Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is just 1-for-11 with a solo homer vs. K.C. pitching.
Toronto went 1-3 at Kauffman Stadium in 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays
After winning the first two games in Tampa to start this week, the Toronto offence went quiet in scoring one total run in losing the last two. With Cleveland winning on Thursday, that means the Blue Jays can’t clinch a playoff spot on Friday with a magic number of three. There was some hope that slugger Anthony Santander might be called up this weekend from his rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo, but that is not expected to happen now.
This should be the penultimate regular-season start in a Blue Jays uniform for 41-year-old future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer (5-3, 4.31 ERA). He hasn’t been particularly sharp of late and comes off a no-decision vs. Baltimore, allowing two runs over five. It’s no sure thing there is a spot for Scherzer on the Toronto playoff rotation if he’s not sharp in his final two outings. He is on an extra day of rest.
Scherzer is 2-3 on the road with a 4.19 ERA despite holding batters to a .214 average away compared to .250 at home. The right-hander didn’t face the Royals earlier and is 14-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 24 starts against them. Royals catcher Salvador Perez, whom we mentioned above, is a career .353 hitter off Scherzer with three homers and two doubles in 34 at-bats, but he’s the only Royals batter with good career splits off him. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-5 with two Ks.
Toronto is 4-1 in its past five Friday games.
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City lost two players to the injured list on Thursday in outfielder Kyle Isbel and starting pitcher Ryan Bergert. Safe to say the season is finished for both. Like the Blue Jays, the Royals were shut out on Thursday, and they fell back under .500. This is their final home series of the year (41-37 at Kauffman Stadium).
It’s veteran righty Michael Lorenzen (5-11, 4.91 ERA) on the mound tonight. Originally, the plan was for Lorenzen to piggyback starter Cole Ragans on Wednesday with multiple innings. But Bergert dealing with forearm tightness altered Kansas City’s rotation plans. Lorenzen did still pitch in relief on Wednesday but just one inning and 12 pitches, so essentially a bullpen session.
The Royals have lost Lorenzen’s last three starts, in which he allowed a combined 12 runs and 21 hits over 14.1 innings. He has been better at home with a 3.83 ERA in 11 outings but is still just 2-5. Lorenzen hasn’t faced Toronto this year and is 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA in four appearances spanning 14.1 innings career vs. the Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2-for-6 career off him with a double, and Alejandro Kirk 2-for-3.
The over is 5-1 in Kansas City’s past six.
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