Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
Boston opened as -155 favourites on the MLB odds.
Betting Analysis
One of the potentially biggest free agents in MLB this winter wasn’t going to be a player but Red Sox manager Alex Cora. He didn’t have a contract after 2024, but with Boston playing better than most expected and contending for an AL wild-card spot, Cora was given an extension in late July. He could have been on the Blue Jays’ radar once manager John Schneider is let go as expected.
Will Boston get into the playoffs? The final two AL WC spots surely will be between the Red Sox along with Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City in the Central Division (whichever of those two doesn’t win the AL Central). The top AL WC spot should go to either the New York Yankees or Baltimore (whichever doesn’t win the East).
Toronto has not fared well against its division this season at 17-24, including 1-4 against the Red Sox entering this series. Note that the teams on Monday afternoon will finish a June 26 game that was suspended from Fenway Park with a 0-0 score in the top of the second inning. We will see history with it confirmed that Danny Jansen will be in the Red Sox starting lineup to finish it.
Jansen was Toronto’s starting catcher that June 26 night but of course eventually traded to Boston. When the suspended game resumes, Jansen technically will be at the plate for the Jays, who will have to use a pinch hitter. We have seen guys traded switch dugouts during a game, but never has an MLB player appeared for two different clubs in the same single-game box score.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays didn’t start either Daulton Varsho or Spencer Horwitz on Sunday but simply for rest/pitching matchup reasons and Horwitz did pinch-hit. Varsho is on a season-high nine-game hitting streak. Toronto made history in the 8-2 victory to sweep the season series with the Halos 7-0. The Blue Jays had never previously finished a season series with at least seven wins and no losses against any opponent.
Veteran righty Jose Berrios (12-9, 3.79 ERA) is on the mound Monday night. He’s having a solid year overall but is 3-7 with a 4.91 ERA in 13 road starts with batters hitting .257 off him compared to .219 at home. Berrios has gotten a decision in seven straight starts and beat the Reds at Rogers Centre last Tuesday, allowing two runs over seven. It was Berrios’ third consecutive outing of seven innings. He has not faced the Red Sox in 2024 and is 3-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 14 career starts against them. All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran is 4-for-11 career off him with two homers, a double and three RBIs in 11 at-bats. Rafael Devers has seen Berrios by far the most of any Boston player and is 7-for-33 with three doubles and two home runs.
Boston Red Sox
Boston would be holding an AL wild-card spot currently if it was just decent at home but the Sox are 29-35 at Fenway Park compared to 37-26 on the road after being swept at Fenway over the weekend by Arizona. It was the fifth time this season the Sox had been swept and third at home. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill, having a really nice year, was back in the Boston starting lineup for Sunday’s home finale after missing the first two with finger inflammation. All-Star third baseman Rafael Devers hit his 200th career home on Sunday to become the 11th player ever to hit 200 with the Red Sox, but the first before turning 28 years old.
It’s veteran righty Nick Pivetta (5-8, 4.70) scheduled on the mound Monday. He is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in three August outings and has allowed at least two homers in five straight starts overall. Pivetta’s lone start this year against Toronto was June 17 at Rogers Centre, and he allowed three runs over seven in a victory. George Springer is a career .367 hitter off him in 30 at-bats, and Daulton Varsho is 4-for-11 career off Pivetta with two homers.
