Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays make their final regular-season visit to Boston this weekend with Toronto a +135 underdog on the MLB odds for Friday’s opener against Red Sox lefty and Canadian James Paxton.
Betting Analysis
The Red Sox were shockingly quiet at the Trade Deadline as they didn’t make any major moves despite being smack-dab in the middle of wild-card contention. Perhaps ownership didn’t want to add any major salary thinking this is not a championship team. And it’s probably not. Then again, the team didn’t sell off any big pieces, either. If Boston were in the AL Central, it would be in first place.
This writer doesn’t believe the Sox will get a wild-card berth and that the three spots will go to two AL East teams (Toronto and whichever of Baltimore or Tampa Bay doesn’t win the division) and the second-place AL West finisher (whichever of Texas or Houston doesn’t win it).
Boston leads the season series 7-0, including a three-game sweep at Rogers Centre from June 30-July 2, after losing 16 of 19 meetings in 2022. The Red Sox last won seven straight over Toronto in 1999.
Toronto Blue Jays
Before Thursday’s home series finale against the Orioles, a 6-1 loss, the Jays put reliever Trevor Richards on the 15-day IL with a neck injury and recalled Bowden Francis from Triple-A Buffalo. With closer Jordan Romano still on the IL and Jay Jackson on the family emergency list (not clear when back), that bullpen is a bit questionable right now. All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette landed on the IL earlier this week but the Jays quickly filled that gap by trading for Cardinals infielder Paul De Jong. He is 0-for-6 with his new team. Right-hander Alek Manoah (2-8, 5.87) takes the mound Friday. He has been much better if still not his 2022 self since his return from a minor-league stint to build confidence. Manoah is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA in four starts back and is still walking too many guys. Manaoh has been great against Boston in seven career starts at 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He lost at Fenway on May 3, allowing five runs (two earned) over five. Boston’s Alex Verdugo has good splits off him at 8-for-19 with two doubles and a homer.
Boston Red Sox
One advantage for Boston in that it was off on Thursday to reset the bullpen, etc. The team finished a trip through San Francisco and Seattle at 2-4 following Wednesday’s blown lead against the Mariners and 6-3 loss. Starting third baseman Justin Turner was out of the lineup for the second straight day after suffering a heel contusion in Monday’s game but is expected to play Friday. Former All-Star shortstop Trevor Story hasn’t played this season off elbow surgery but is very close – he will not be activated Friday but Saturday is possible. It’s southpaw and British Columbia native James “The Big Maple” Paxton (6-2, 3.34 ERA) on the mound Friday. There was some talk of trading him simply as Paxton has been so good that he may be too expensive for Boston to re-sign this winter. Paxton was spectacular in Toronto on June 30 with 7.2 shutout innings a victory. Overall, though, he has been much better at Fenway Park with a 2-0 record and 2.25 ERA in five starts.
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