Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jul 29, 2021

Hyun-jin Ryu will be on the mound Thursday at Fenway for the Blue Jays' last game before their return to Canada.

Toronto
87-69
AT
July 29, 2021, 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
Boston
88-67
Runline +1.5 -176
Moneyline -110
Over / Under o +10.5

76%

Betting Action

24%

Runline -1.5 +147
Moneyline -110
Over / Under u +10.5

76%

Betting Action

24%

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will finish their four-game series at Fenway on Thursday night, before the Jays head back to the Rogers Centre for the first time in almost two years on Friday.  Toronto has dropped two of three in the series, including a split of Wednesday’s double-header.

The Red Sox are -110 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 10.

Betting Analysis

Toronto hasn’t had an answer for the division-leading Red Sox, as Boston has won nine of 14 games in the season series.  Eight games have gone Under between these teams this season, including all three games of the current series.

The Blue Jays have dropped six of their last eight games overall and five of their last six at Fenway.  With how good their bats have been all season (and how poor the bullpen has been), it’s a little surprising to see the total has gone Under in five of their last six games overall and eight of their last nine in Boston.

The Red Sox improved to 7-2 straight up in their last nine games with Wednesday night’s win.  The total has gone Under in Boston’s last seven games overall and eight straight at Fenway.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is turning to veteran lefty Hyun-jin Ryu to salvage this series and go for the split.  In 19 starts this season, Ryu has gone 9-5 with a 3.44 ERA.  With the consistently struggling bullpen, the Jays are going to need a longer outing for Ryu.  In his last start against the New York Mets last Saturday, he failed to get the decision after allowing three runs on 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings.  Overall, most of Ryu’s numbers have been steady in 2021, although his strikeout rate has dropped from 9.67 batters per nine innings in 2020 to 7.28 per nine this year.  In four career starts against the Red Sox, Ryu is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA.  He’s had two starts against Boston this season, matching his career number with a 3.00 ERA.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are set to counter the Jays with their own lefty.  Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start on Thursday.  Rodriguez is also looking for a better performance than his last start, when he left with a migraine in the second inning against the New York Yankees last Friday.  On the season, Rodriguez is 7-5 with a career-worst 5.23 ERA in 19 starts, but he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts.  His numbers aren’t as bad as they appear, however, as he’s fanned 10.56 batters and only walked 2.24 batters per nine innings of work, both career-high numbers.  In two starts against Toronto this season, Rodriguez is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA.  In 15 career starts against the Jays, he’s 5-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Red Sox?

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