Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays come out of the All-Star break with a three-game series at the rival Boston Red Sox. Toronto is a short favourite to win on the MLB odds for Friday’s opener, the only night game in the series.
Betting Analysis
Every game in the AL East is going to be important going forward as it’s quite possible, thanks to the surge of the Baltimore Orioles, that all five teams finish with winning records and that all three Wild-Card spots come from the division, which would be pretty shocking. The Yankees won’t have to worry about the Wild Card as they are winning the East barring an epic collapse.
The Jays are 7-3 vs. the Red Sox this season and 2-1 at Fenway Park. Alejandro Kirk is 9-for-22 in the series with a double, four runs, three walks and no strikeouts. George Springer is batting .297 vs. Boston with three homers and six RBIs. Matt Chapman is at .262 with two homers and six knocked in. Jordan Romano has two saves and a 1.80 ERA. All-Star Xander Bogaerts is batting .421 vs. Toronto pitching this year with four doubles and three RBIs. The Jays’ pitchers have kept fellow All-Stars Rafael Devers (.205, one RBI) and JD Martinez (.200, three HRs) largely in check. Boston has hit just three homers in the series.
Toronto Blue Jays
At 50-43, Toronto holds down the final AL Wild-Card spot and is -526 to make the playoffs and +338 to miss. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the season as the AL MVP favourite but is now a +3606 longer shot as he’s hitting .271 with 20 HRs and 57 RBIs. The Jays are healthy in the lineup out of the break.
It’s expected to be Kevin Gausman (6-7, 2.87 ERA) on the mound. Gausman shouldn’t have a losing record with his ERA but he isn’t getting much run support. He returned last Thursday from a bruised ankle that cost him a turn or two through the rotation and allowed two runs over six innings in a home loss against Kansas City. The right-hander has totally dominated Boston this year, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 21.0 innings. Bogaerts does hit Gausman well, batting .333 with three extra-base hits in 48 at-bats. Fellow All-Star Devers is only 2-for-14 off Gausman. Toronto is 6-0 in its past six following an off day.
Boston Red Sox
At 48-45, the Red Sox are two games behind the Blue Jays for the AL’s final Wild-Card spot. Boston is -130 to make the playoffs and -102 to miss. Third baseman Devers (.324, 22 HRs, 55 RBIs) is +1120 to win AL MVP. The Sox remain without injured second baseman Trevor Story, who won’t be eligible to be activated until Sunday. The rotation is still a bit of a mess. One-time ace Chris Sale got a late start to this season off injury and only made it 5.2 innings before suffering a fractured finger that has sidelined him again and required surgery.
It’s expected to be right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.34 ERA) on Friday. He came off the injured list last Friday and allowed three runs over 4.1 innings in a no-decision at the Yankees. He has started twice this year against Toronto and is 0-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 11.2 innings. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 5-for-16 off him with two homers career. Springer just 3-for-18 with four strikeouts. The Red Sox are 1-6 in their past seven vs. AL East teams.
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