Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a short favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5, but those could change as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in question.
Betting Analysis
Now that teams play every other club in the majors at least one series, the number of intradivisional games has been reduced. Thus, after this weekend set in Boston, the Blue Jays and Red Sox have just one more series in 2025: Sept. 23-25 at Rogers Centre when both might be competing for an AL Wild-Card spot.
Toronto leads the series 5-2, winning three of four at Fenway in early April (loss was in the finale in extra innings) and taking two of three at home from April 29-May 1. George Springer is batting .389 against Red Sox pitching this year with a homer and five RBIs, while Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both have two home runs but Varsho is currently on the IL.
Boston’s Rafael Devers is hitting.321 with a homer, four doubles and three RBIs vs. the Blue Jays this year, but the All-Star was fairly recently shipped to the San Francisco Giants in a shocking blockbuster. Alex Bregman has two homers and six RBIs in the series but hasn’t played in the majors since May 23 after landing on the IL with a quad injury. Bregman isn’t expected back before the All-Star break. Another big recent move by Boston was calling up the No. 1 overall prospect in the majors in outfielder Roman Anthony. He debuted on June 23 but might be sent back down soon batting just .114. Playing in the majors is hard.
Toronto Blue Jays
Small disadvantage in that Toronto had to play Thursday and Boston didn’t, but the Jays easily won 6-0 in Cleveland to win that series. And Kevin Gausman was so dominant over eight innings that the only reliever used was Chad Green for one inning.
However, the major news was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leaving after being hit by a pitch on the right forearm. X-rays were negative, but he might sit a game or two. Thursday marked the second straight day that Guerrero had been hit by a Guardians pitcher. He and catcher Alejandro Kirk are finalists to start next month’s All-Star Game for the AL.
Veteran righty Jose Berrios (3-3, 3.51 ERA) takes the mound tonight. He’s 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA away in seven starts. Berrios has faced Boston twice in 2025 and is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings with 10 strikeouts. He’s set at over-under 5.5 Ks tonight. The Sox’s Jarren Duran hammers Berrios career, going 10-for-21 with five doubles and three homers. Toronto is 1-5 in its past six vs. AL East foes.
Boston Red Sox
Boston started a nine-game West Coast trip by winning three of its first four games … but ended on a five-game skid after being swept in Anaheim on Wednesday night. When you are a team playing so many rookies as the Red Sox are, you are going to have wild ups and downs.
The offence has really slowed down since trading All-Star slugger Rafael Devers to Boston. In the 73 games prior to the trade, the Sox averaged 4.84 runs per game. In the nine since, 3.11 runs per. The team’s .573 OPS during that span is last in the majors. The Red Sox have lost back-to-back series to fall to 13-12-1 in series play overall. The team has a whopping 15 walk-off games (7-8 record in those).
Righty Bryan Bello (3-2, 3.31 ERA) takes the mound tonight. He was pretty inconsistent early on but has four straight quality starts in June with a 1-1 record and 2.49 ERA. Bello has made nine career starts vs. Toronto and is 3-4 with a 5.48 ERA. He has not seen the Jays in 2025. A fair amount of Blue Jays have good splits off him, led by Bo Bichette at 5-for-13 with a double. Boston is 5-0 in its past five vs. the AL East. Note that while it had been scorching hot across much of the USA this week, the forecast is for tonight is highs around 68 at first pitch in Boston, so it shouldn’t be too overly pitcher-friendly at Fenway. Winds are right to left.
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