Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Sep 20, 2021

Robbie Ray will continue to make his case for the AL Cy Young award when he steps on the mound to open a three-game set against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Toronto
91-71
AT
September 20, 2021, 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
Tampa Bay
100-62
Runline -1.5 +105
Moneyline -147
Over / Under o +8

81%

Betting Action

19%

Runline +1.5 -125
Moneyline +122
Over / Under u +8

81%

Betting Action

19%

We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season and there’s still a lot to be decided, with the AL East’s Toronto Blue Jays in a tight wild race with the Yankees and Red Sox.  Currently sitting in the second wild card spot, the Jays will open a three-game series in Tampa Bay on Monday, against the division-leading Rays.

Toronto is a -133 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 8.0.

Betting Analysis

With a commanding lead in the AL East, it’s not surprising to see Tampa leading the season series between these teams 9-6, although Toronto has won three of the past four meetings.  It hasn’t been high scoring series, as the Over has only hit five times.  The last eight games in the series either went Under the total, or were a push.

The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in baseball over the month of September, stringing together a 15-3 record in that time.  They’ve won seven of their last nine games overall and nine of their last 10 on the road.  The big difference in Toronto’s turnaround has been their improvement in divisional games, with the Jays winning 16 of their last 21 contests against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay continues to pad their AL East lead with strong play at home, winning 13 of their last 19 games at Tropicana Field.  They’ve also won 13 of their last 16 divisional games.  The total has gone Under in the Rays’ last five home games against Toronto and four of their last six overall.

Toronto Blue Jays

Southpaw Robbie Ray is on the mound to start the series Monday night.  In his first full season with the Jays, Ray is having a career-year with a 12-5 record and 2.64 ERA in 29 starts, putting him near the top of the AL Cy Young race on the MLB futures odds.  Ray has only continued to elevate his play as the season has gone on, allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 appearances.  This will be the second straight start against Tampa for Ray.  Last Wednesday, he threw seven innings of one-run ball with 13 strikeouts and no walks in a 6-3 win.  For the season, Ray is averaging 11.83 strikeouts per nine innings and his 2.64 ERA and 2.23 walks per nine innings are both career-bests.  This is the lefty’s sixth start against Tampa Bay this season.  In Ray’s five starts against Tampa this year, he’s 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay will counter with right-hander Drew Rasmussen on the mound.  The 26-year-old has split time between the bullpen and starting rotation in 2021, going 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 games.  Rasmussen has eight starts on the year, with six of them coming in the last month.  In that span, he’s given up just four earned runs over 27 innings with a 1.33 ERA, while allowing one earned run or fewer in each of those six starts.  Rasmussen is averaging 9.27 strikeouts and 3.27 walks per nine innings, while holding opposing hitters to a .210 batting average.  His last start came last Tuesday against Toronto.  In 5 2/3 innings, Rasmussen had three strikeouts and one walk in a 2-0 win.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Rays?

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