Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays open what promises to be the most unusual regular season in franchise and Major League Baseball history when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Rays are solid favourites on the MLB odds with an over-under of just 7.
MLB Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays will not play a single game at Rogers Centre this season because of the coronavirus and rules along the US-Canadian border. As of this writing, it’s still not clear where the Jays will call home – most likely Pittsburgh – but an original consideration was to either share Tropicana Field with the Rays or play at their spring facility in Dunedin, Fla., which is about 20 miles from the Trop. However, for one reason or another (the coronavirus is raging out of control currently in Florida) neither option proved practical.
The cost-cutting Rays may do more with less than any franchise in baseball, and they definitely have the worst stadium in the league. Tampa Bay has won at least 90 games in back-to-back seasons, beat Oakland in the 2019 AL Wild-Card Game and took the powerhouse Houston Astros a full five games in the ALDS before falling.
Tampa Bay is given an over-under win total of 34, with the over a -132 favourite. The Rays are -139 to make the playoffs again and +262 second-favourites in the AL East behind the Yankees (-281). The Blue Jays are +1400.
Tampa Bay was 13-6 vs. Toronto last year and 8-2 at home. The teams will play 10 total times this 60-game shortened season with the Blue Jays back in St. Petersburg, Fla., from Aug. 21-24. The Jays lost 13 of their final 18 road games last year and the Rays won 20 of their final 26 at home.
Toronto Blue Jays
It will be the Toronto debut of South Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who signed an $80 million (US) free-agent deal this winter. Last year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ryu was a betting favourite for a large chunk of the season to win the NL Cy Young, but he finished second to repeat winner Jacob deGrom of the Mets.
Ryu finished 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA (best in majors) and 1.01 WHIP in 182.2 regular-season innings with an opponents’ batting average of just .157. It was by far Ryu’s best season in the majors; he always has been good but has trouble staying healthy.
Ryu is +2200 on the MLB odds to win the AL Cy Young Award, +1500 to lead the AL in wins and has over-under totals of 4.5 wins and 69.5 strikeouts. Most pitchers will only get 12 starts or so.
This will be Ryu’s second Opening Day start in MLB. With Clayton Kershaw not 100 percent healthy for the 2019 opener, Ryu got the call vs. Arizona and allowed on run over six innings in a victory.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay counters with veteran right-hander Charlie Morton. He comes off a career season, going 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 194.2 regular-season innings to finish third in the AL Cy Young voting. Morton went 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 starts at Tropicana Field. This will be his first career Opening Day start.
Morton was 0-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 2019 vs. the Jays, who hit a combined .239 off him. Bo Bichette was 2-for-7 with a homer – the only homer Toronto hit vs. Morton. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 1-for-6 with a double and two strikeouts.
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