Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
The Rays are -140 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 9.0.
Betting Analysis
The Tampa Bay Rays usually play at decrepit Tropicana Field, which is a short drive down the Gulf Coast in St. Petersburg, Fla., from the Blue Jays’ spring home of Dunedin. However, the Trop was severely damaged last October by Hurricane Milton so the Rays and MLB came to the conclusion they would be best served by playing across the bay in Tampa at the New York Yankees’ spring home this season.
Frankly, the Rays are drawing better at George M. Steinbrenner Field than they usually do at the Trop and most believe the franchise should be located in Tampa full-time. But the team’s future in the entire area is up in the air. It does appear that Steinbrenner Field – which is basically a carbon copy of Yankee Stadium in New York – has been more hitter friendly so far but it certainly depends on how hot, humid and windy it might be in Tampa on a given day/night. The Rays are going to have a lot of postponed games due to rain playing outdoors in Florida in the summer.
This marks the last series between the division rivals until after the All-Star break. Tampa Bay won two of three in Toronto from May 13-15, scoring 19 total runs in the victories and once in the loss. Brandon Lowe had a monster series for the Rays at 7-for-13 with two homers, six RBIs and four runs scored.
The Blue Jays haven’t won a season series on the road against the Rays since 2014, so maybe the change of venue helps.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are at a pretty significant disadvantage in that they had to not only play Thursday and then travel – Tampa Bay was off – but used nearly every reliever on the roster in a 7-6 victory in 11 innings over San Diego to complete the home sweep of the Padres and finish 5-4 on the nine-game homestand. Closer Jeff Hoffman blew his third save of the season in allowing two runs over an inning and is really struggling this month. Struggling slugger Anthony Santander was held out of the starting lineup after leaving Wednesday’s game because of left hip inflammation.
Journeyman lefty Eric Lauer (1-0, 2.25 ERA) gets the start Friday on the mound. It’s the fifth appearance and second start of the season for the 29-year-old. He did start last Saturday at home vs. Detroit and allowed one run over three innings, so he didn’t qualify for a win. Lauer hasn’t thrown more than 4.2 innings yet this year. But after the bullpen was used so much Thursday, perhaps he is allowed to go five full tonight if pitching well. Lauer has pitched 12.1 career innings vs. the Rays and is 0-1 with an 8.76 ERA. Yandy Diaz is 2-for-5 off him with a double and homer. The over is 6-0 in Toronto’s past six road games.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays opened this week winning two of three at home vs. Houston and as noted have been off since Wednesday, so the bullpen is fully available tonight. Tampa Bay hit four first-pitch homers in Wednesday’s 8-4 win. The Rays hadn’t done that since count-specific data became available in 2000. Homers might be prevalent tonight as well at Steinbrenner Field as it’s very hot and humid in the Tampa area (and winds appear to be blowing out a little), which is generally conducive to a lot of offence. Tampa Bay has perhaps the fastest player in the majors in rookie outfielder Chandler Simpson. He is the definition of a slap hitter and has zero power whatsoever, but if he gets on first almost surely will try and steal second. Simpson is 12-for-15 in stolen bases.
Righty Drew Rasmussen (2-4., 2.93 ERA) is on the hill tonight. He was one of the AL’s better starters in 2022 but then injuries hit. Rasmussen missed 15 months of action following a procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow in May 2023 but has been pretty sharp so far this year. Rasmussen is on a bit of a pitch count as he hasn’t topped 81 yet and went six innings last time out for the first time since the surgery. He is 1-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 45 career innings against Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 6-for-21 off him career with two doubles and a homer. The under is 5-1 in Tampa Bay’s past six at home.
TOR
TB