Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays open a series near their spring home of Dunedin on Monday night as they visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the first of three games. The Rays are -120 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of eight runs.
Betting Analysis
Monday marks Toronto’s first game at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg – about 25 miles south of the Jays’ spring home of Dunedin – since the 2024 campaign. The Rays had to play all of last season at the spring home of the New York Yankees in Tampa because of hurricane damage to the Trop, easily the worst ballpark in the majors. The Rays are planning to move to Tampa full-time in a new ballpark for Opening Day 2029 if all is done in time. That’s far from a sure thing.
Monday marks the first meeting of the season between the AL East rivals with the Rays making their first visit to Rogers Centre next Monday. Toronto hasn’t won a season series vs. Tampa Bay since 2017 and dropped seven of 13 in 2025.The Rays had finished with a losing record overall the past two seasons but are back in division contention in 2026, sitting second 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees. To win the East, the Rays are +1000 with Toronto at +1100. The Blue Jays sit third, seven games behind the Yanks. I do believe Tampa Bay is a playoff team.
The under is 8-2 in the past 10 in the series when Toronto is the road team.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays split four at Minnesota over the weekend to start this road trip, dropping the finale Sunday, 4-3. Kazuma Okamoto was a bright spot in the loss, homering for a third straight game. There was a bit of controversy as catcher Tyler Heineman was pulled in the sixth inning due to a “manager’s decision” after Heineman flew out on a first-pitch breaking ball with the bases loaded. No doubt that Heineman is struggling this season, hitting just.176 with an OPS of .399 and zero extra-base hits. Brandon Valenzuela may start seeing a lot more time behind the plate until Alejandro Kirk returns from a fractured thumb.
Lefty Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA) is on the hill Monday, although his tenure in the rotation could be short once Jose Berrios finishes his rehab assignment. Lauer was decent last time out, allowing a run and five hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision vs. Boston. He is 1-2 with a 7.08 ERA in 20.1 career innings vs. Tampa Bay. Yandy Diaz is 2-for-8 with a homer career off him. Toronto is 9-2 in its past 11 vs. the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay finished a home sweep of the Giants on Sunday with a 2-1 victory in 10 innings and has just one loss in the past 10. Yandy Diaz, whom I mentioned above, missed a second game in a row with a minor injury but likely is in there Monday. He leads the team with a .333 average and .422 OBP. Jonathan Aranda had four hits Sunday, including the game-winning RBI in the 10th. He leads the American League with 28 RBIs. Tampa Bay has now swept a big-league best four series on the season. Since a 5-7 start, the team has won 16 of 21.
Righty Nick Martinez (2-1, 1.70 ERA) starts on the mound Monday. The 35-year-old journeyman is having a career year. He shut out the Guardians over seven innings on just three hits last time out. Martinez is 1-2 with a 6.66 ERA in 24.1 innings vs. Toronto. George Springer is 6-for-17 with two homers off him. The under is 5-0 in the Rays’ past five at home.
