Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Odds, Prediction
Toronto looks to win the season series against the NL East-contending Phillies. Philadelphia is a -120 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of eight runs.
Betting Analysis
On June 3, the Blue Jays lost 8-3 at Rogers Centre to the Phillies but won the final two games to capture the series. Two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper was able to return from a non-injury list issue for that series but clearly wasn’t 100 per cent due to his wrist problems in going 1-for-11 with a solo homer and five strikeouts. Harper was placed on the 10-day injured list last weekend so he will miss this series. Needless to say, that severely weakens the Philly lineup. One of the team’s top starting pitchers, Aaron Nola, is also on the IL.
Toronto’s Davis Schneider had a good first series, going 3-for-6 with a homer. Alejandro Kirk was 4-for-11 with two runs scored and two RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a single in 12 at-bats. The Blue Jays split two games in Philadelphia last season and haven’t won a series there since 2018. The Phillies, managed by Canadian Rob Thomson, definitely have one of the better home-field advantages in the sport with their rabid fans.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 12 of 14 following a 5-2 victory in St. Louis on Wednesday to complete the sweep of the NL Central-contending Cardinals. Ernie Clement homered, but he may sit tonight as Clement is dealing with a lower-body injury and was replaced by Addison Barger at third base in the ninth inning. Outfielder Nathan Lukes was placed on the seven-day concussion IL ahead of Wednesday’s game.
Righty Kevin Gausman (5-4, 3.87 ERA) is scheduled to start on the mound tonight. He has allowed three earned or fewer in six of his past seven but has gotten a no-decision in back-to-back outings. Gausman has been worse away, going 2-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He has made nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Phillies and is 1-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Nick Castellanos has seen him the most of any Philly batter and is 9-for-27 with four doubles, two homers and five RBIS. Trea Turner hits .345 off him in 26 at-bats. The over is 6-1 in Toronto’s past seven.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phils were also off Thursday after taking two of three home vs. the Cubs to open this week in a potential NL playoff preview. Kyle Schwarber is among the MLB home run leaders with 21. He’s typical of the modern-day slugger: Schwarber generally homers, strikes out or walks. He is averaging one home run for every 10.94 at bats during June in his career, which ranks third in MLB history (minimum 600 at-bats) and is +275 to go yard tonight. The Phillies had hit just two homers in five games since Bryce Harper’s wrist injury before doubling that total Wednesday in beating Chicago.
Lefty Ranger Suarez (4-1, 2.70 ERA) is on the mound tonight. He has allowed fewer than three earned in four straight outings and has a quality start in six straight. Suarez’s lone career outing vs. the Jays was in 2021 in Dunedin (COVID stuff), and he allowed an unearned run in 2.1 innings. No Toronto hitter has more than two career regular-season at-bats off him but probably saw him a bit during the spring as the Phillies and Jays train near each other in Florida. The Phils are 2-5 in their past seven at home.
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