Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -120 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 9.5 runs.
Jays vs. Orioles July 28 Betting Analysis
A reminder that this is Toronto’s last series ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline, and there’s no question the Blue Jays will do something this week as they are “all-in” for 2025. They have been linked to just about every potential starting pitcher and reliever on the market as well as All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez of Arizona and a few others.
Baltimore has been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and fired manager Brandon Hyde after a 15-28 start to the season. Third base coach Tony Mansolino is the interim guy and the O’s have played better under him, so Mansolino will surely get a full-time look. The guy who should have been fired was general manager Mike Elias after doing such a terrible job this past offseason in adding to the rotation after losing ace Corbin Burnes in free agency. Pitching is the biggest reason the O’s have regressed to last in the AL East after reaching the playoffs the past two years and looking like a potential juggernaut in the making with a lot of good young offensive talent.
These clubs have one three-game series left after this, coming in Toronto from Sept. 12-14. The Orioles will be long eliminated from playoff contention by then. The teams have split six meetings thus far and two in Baltimore. Bo Bichette is hitting .462 with three doubles in the season series.
Toronto Blue Jays
It was a good weekend for the Blue Jays. Yes, they did lose Sunday in Detroit to see a four-game winning streak snapped. But Toronto took three of four at the AL Central-leading Tigers overall and saw its lead atop the AL East over the New York Yankees improve to 5.5 games. In addition, the Yanks lost AL MVP favourite Aaron Judge to the IL, so Toronto potentially has a shot of extending that lead while Judge is out. The Blue Jays are now -250 to win the AL East. The one piece of bad news was All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk landing on the seven-day concussion IL on Sunday. Manager John Schneider confirmed that Tyler Heineman will see the majority of the playing time at catcher will Kirk is out.
Catcher Ali Sanchez was called up from Triple-A Buffalo to take Kirk’s roster spot. Veteran righty Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA) is on the mound tonight. He already has a case for AL Pitcher of the Month as Bassitt is 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in five July starts. His lone start this year vs. the Orioles was on March 30 at Rogers Centre and Bassitt got the win, allowing one run over six. He has been much worse on the road this year at 3-4 with a 5.66 ERA. Baltimore’s Ryan O’Hearn has had success off him at 7-for-13 with a double and homer. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their past eight vs. the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters on a two-game winning streak, but that changes nothing as the team is still last in the AL East comfortably and will be a seller by the trade deadline. I’m a bit surprised we haven’t seen anymajor Orioles deals yet. Former All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman will be activated off the IL today. The ex-No. 1 pick was having a hugely disappointing season before going down with an oblique issue in June. He has been rumoured on the trade market but doesn’t have a ton of value at the moment so likely stays put. Closer Felix Bautista is also on the injured list.
Canadian outfielder/DH Tyler O’Neill, from British Columbia, enters having homered in three straight games. O’Neill’s season has largely been wrecked by injuries. Righty Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA) gets the start on the mound tonight. He returned from an IL stay last Wednesday in Cleveland and allowed two runs over five in a no-decision. The 31-year-old’s lone start this year vs. the Blue Jays was Opening Day in Toronto and he won, allowing two runs over six. The over is 7-1 in Baltimore’s past eight vs. the Blue Jays.
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