Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets: Odds, Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays head to New York on Friday to open a three-game set against the Mets. Stuck at fourth in the AL East, the Jays are trying to avoid losing three straight games for the first time since June after they dropped two games to the Boston Red Sox earlier this week. The Mets are back home after they ended a six-game road trip with a 7-0 win in Cincinnati on Wednesday and have a three-game cushion atop the NL East.
The Mets opened as -121 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with Toronto at +100. The total is 8.5, with the Over favoured at -119.
Betting Analysis
A trip to New York might be exactly what the Jays need at this point. They have a league-leading 13-2 record in interleague play this year and have won six of their last nine meetings overall with the Mets. Things haven’t been great specifically in Queens, however, where Toronto has only won once in 10 all-time games. They’ve hit the Over in four of their last five games overall, but only 19 of 48 total road games this year.
The Mets’ bats have been averaging eight runs per game over their current 3-1 run. They’ve been middling overall with an 8-8 record in their last 16 games and have only recorded consecutive wins twice in the last month. New York has hit the Over in four of their last six home games, five of their last seven games against Toronto and six of their last seven games against AL opponents.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is only one week away from playing their first game in Canada since 2019 on July 30. In their final “home” set in Buffalo earlier this week, the Jays were swept in a rain-shortened series against the Red Sox. They now trail Boston by eight games for first in the AL East and they sit 4.5 games back of Oakland for the final wildcard spot. Toronto only finished with five hits on Wednesday, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (32nd), Teoscar Hernandez (13th) and George Springer (seventh) all hit home runs. Robbie Ray gave up four runs on five hits. In five innings of work, Ray had one walk and four strikeouts and took the loss, dropping is record to 8-5 on the year.
Steven Matz will get his 17th start of the season on Friday. He’s 8-4 with a 4.43 ERA and has 21 walks and 84 strikeouts in 81.1 innings of work this season. Matz threw five scoreless innings in his last start on Sunday, a 10-0 win in the second game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers. He allowed three hits with no walks and two strikeouts. Matz is 6-2 on the road this year with a 3.70 ERA, eight walks and 57 strikeouts over 48.2 innings in nine starts.
New York Mets
New York took two of three games in Cincinnati and now sit three games ahead of Atlanta and Philadelphia for the NL East lead. The bats led the way on Wednesday against the Reds, with Dominic Smith (run, four RBI) and Luis Guillorme (run, two RBI) leading the way with two hits each. Smith hit a grand slam for his 11th homer of the year, while Jonathan Villar hit his 10th and Guillorme hit his first. Former Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman threw eight scoreless innings in the win. Stroman allowed one hit with one walk and seven strikeouts to improve his record to 7-8 on the year.
Tylor Megill will be on the mound for the Mets on Friday. He’s coming in with no record. Megill has a 2.63 ERA with nine walks and 28 strikeouts over 24 innings of work this year. He didn’t factor into his last start, which came on Saturday in Pittsburgh. In that game, Megill allowed no runs or walks over six innings with two strikeouts. In three starts at home this season, he has a 2.77 ERA with seven walks and 18 strikeouts over 13 innings.
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