Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -160 favourite on the MLB odds and a total of 8 runs.
Jays vs. Marlins Aug 22nd Betting Analysis
A series in Miami is always a treat for MLB players obviously because of the nightlife but also the Marlins haven’t been very good for a while and draw flies in terms of fans. Only two teams currently playing in minor-league temporary ballparks – the Rays and Athletics – are drawing fewer fans in 2025. Some of the more popular major-league clubs will have more of their backers in the stands in a given night in South Florida.
The Marlins are one of the lowest spenders in baseball (28th in payroll) but have shown improvement under first-year manager Clayton McCollough as they already have won nearly as many games as they did in 2024 under then-manager Skip Schumaker. Miami has some interesting starting pitching led by rising youngster Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera and former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.
All of those guys could be had via trade this off-season. What the Marlins are still lacking are enough bats to contend for an NL playoff spot anytime soon – although outfielder Kyle Stowers is having a breakout year. So they might have to trade some of that pitching in the winter.
Toronto was swept a three-game home series last year by Miami but won two of three in its last trip to South Florida in 2023.
Toronto Blue Jays
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be in the lineup on Friday? He injured his hamstring while making a couple of splits at first base catching throws during Monday’s game in Pittsburgh and sat out Tuesday and Wednesday. With then the entire team off Thursday, the hope is that the five-time All-Star will be able to go. Perhaps it will be at DH, however, to limit movement as much as possible. The Jays lost the finale on Wednesday, 2-1 at the Pirates, to drop that series.
Friday is a potentially huge night because it’s the Toronto debut of right-hander Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner from Cleveland. He was acquired at the July trade deadline for the Blue Jays’ No. 5 overall prospect in pitcher Khai Stephen. Bieber has not pitched since in the majors since April 2024 as he then had Tommy John surgery. But the 30-year-old has looked very good in his minor-league rehab, including seven shutout innings last Friday in his finale at Triple-A Buffalo. Bieber reached 90 pitches, which should provide an idea of his leash tonight. He lost his lone start vs. the Marlins in 2023 while with Cleveland. The under is 4-2 in the Blue Jays’ past six vs. NL teams.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins were at .500 as recently as Aug. 3 after completing a shocking home three-game sweep vs. the New York Yankees, but Miami has fallen way off since – losing nine of 12 — as it looks toward next season. The rest of the way will be all about seeing which guys will be part of the future. Two guys expected to be big parts of that, third baseman Connor Norbay and outfielder Kyle Stowers, are on the injured list. Stowers as noted is having a breakout year, leading the team in homers (25) and RBIs (73).
Rookie Ryan Gusto (an older rookie at 26) will get the call on the mound, called up from Triple-A Jacksonville to take the rotation spot of Cal Quantrill, who was released this week. Gusto is 7-5 with a 4.89 ERA in 25 total appearances this season but only one of those with the Marlins after being acquired from Houston around the trade deadline. His Miami debut was Aug. 9 in Atlanta when Gusto allowed three earned over six. He faced the Blue Jays on April 23 in Houston and won, allowing a run over 5.2 innings. The Marlins are 29-33 at home.
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