Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins: Odds, Prediction
The Jays are -150 favourites on the MLB odds for Monday’s series opener behind Jose Berrios, who comes off his best outing of the year.
Betting Analysis
On Sunday, the Blue Jays finished three games at Texas, the AL’s most improved team, and now it’s three at arguably the NL’s most improved club in the Miami Marlins. If we throw out the 2020 COVID-shortened season (31-29), the Marlins haven’t finished with a winning record since 2009. Their last non-COVID playoff berth was in 2003 when the franchise won its last World Series title.
First-year manager Skip Schumaker is among the NL Manager of the Year candidates. While I don’t expect the Marlins to win the NL East, they should stay in wild card contention all season because they are extremely deep in good young starting pitching. If they wanted to make a big deal for a bat, they could easily do it with all that stockpile of arms.
It’s the first series between these teams since 2021 when the Jays won all four. They are 9-10 all-time as the road team in the series. The Marlins don’t go to Toronto this year.
Toronto Blue Jays
Last Thursday, the Jays had a chance to win a series in Baltimore but blew a lead in the finale and dropped two of three. On Sunday, the Jays had a chance to win a series in Arlington but blew a 6-0 third-inning lead in an 11-7 defeat and dropped two of three in the series.
Matt Chapman got the day off. Alejandro Kirk left in the second inning with a left hand laceration and contusion after being hit by a pitch. DH Spencer Horwitz had a hit, two walks and an RBI in his MLB debut. Horwitz had been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo on Friday. He should stay in the lineup against righties while Brandon Belt is hurt. It’s righty Jose Berrios (7-4, 3.28 ERA) on the mound Monday for Toronto. He took a no-hitter into the seventh last time out and settled for 7.2 shutout innings, allowing three hits. It was Berrios’ third straight quality start. His lone career outing vs. Miami was on July 31, 2019, when he threw seven shutout innings. Jorge Soler is 5-for-21 off him with a double. Luis Arraez is 3-for-10 with a triple. The Jays are 7-2 in their past nine after a loss.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins won a fourth straight game Sunday, 4-2 at Washington. The team’s 41-31 mark is the second-best start in franchise history through 72 games, behind only the 1997 team that was 43-29 and went on to win the World Series.
Miami is 10 games over .500 for the first time since May 28, 2011. MLB batting leader Luis Arraez (.388) got Sunday off but is fine and should be in there tonight. It’s young right-hander Bryan Hoenig (1-1, 3.12) on the mound. The 26-year-old will serve as an opener, probably limited to around three innings. No Blue Jays batter has seen him. The Marlins have won 11 of their last 13 games at loanDepot park. Miami is 17-5 in its past 22 vs. the American League.
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