Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
The Mariners opened at -125 on the MLB odds.
Jays vs. Mariners July 21 Betting Analysis
The longest playoff drought in the four major North American pro sports leagues (MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL) had belonged to the Mariners entering 2022, but they finished 90-72 and earned a wild card spot – and then shocked the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre with a two-game series sweep before Seattle was then swept in the ALDS by Houston.
More of the same was expected for the M’s this year on the back of burgeoning superstar Julio Rodriguez, the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year. Alas, they are 48-48 and 5.5 games out of the final wild card spot (the AL West is almost certainly out of reach). Rodriguez has been very good but has taken a minor step back. Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Jays over the winter, is having a nice season with 16 homers and 52 RBIs, but the offence has underachieved overall. The rotation has been pretty good but took a big hit when former Jays lefty and 2021 Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray was lost for the season after just one start. Ray had Tommy John surgery and thus will miss a chunk of 2024 as well.
Like the Jays, the Mariners are expected to be buyers ahead of the Trade Deadline. Toronto won two of three at home vs. Seattle from April 28-30. The Jays lost all four in the Pacific Northwest last year.
Toronto Blue Jays
Outfielder Dalton Varsho didn’t start Thursday’s 4-0 win over the Padres to conclude Toronto’s homestand but it was simply for rest/matchup reasons. Closer Jordan Romano pitched for the first time since leaving the July 11 All-Star Game because of a sore back. In March 2022, the Blue Jays signed former Mariners lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $36 million deal — the former Seibu Lions star had turned down a $13 million player option from Seattle. The Blue Jays were interested in Kikuchi when he first came over from Japan but lost out on the bidding. Over three seasons as a Mariner, he went 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA over 70 starts and takes the mound against his former team Friday. Kikuchi (7-3, 4.13 ERA) has not been sharp in three starts this month at 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. He hasn’t lasted more than five in any. His lone career start vs. Seattle was last year at Rogers Centre as Kikuchi threw six shutout innings in a win. Former Blue Jay Teoscar Hernandez has seen him the most of any current Seattle player and is 4-for-9 with two doubles and a homer.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle plays its first 10 games out of the break at home in essentially a make-or-break stretch. The M’s are 3-4 so far. There’s an old saying that water coolers are unbeaten vs. MLB players because the coolers don’t break but the players do when they take out frustration on them. Which brings us to Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic, once one of the top prospects in the sport. He hadn’t lived up to that yet but was having a pretty solid third season with a .252 average, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs and 12 steals. Kelenic landed on the IL Thursday with a fractured foot suffered from … yep, kicking a water cooler. Pro tip: Check to make sure it’s not full first. Seattle starts AL Rookie of the Year candidate Bryce Miller. He won’t win it and in fact may be shut down at some point due to an innings limit but could get some votes. The 24-year-old right-hander, a Top 100 prospect in MLB this spring, is 6-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts. At home, he’s 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA. It’s Miller’s first career outing against Toronto.
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