Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
The Mariners are -135 favourites on the MLB odds for Friday’s opener with a low total of 7.5 runs with terrific righties Kevin Gausman and Luis Castillo facing off.
Betting Analysis
We thought these teams might be battling one another for a potential AL Wild-Card spot this fall. Seattle has held up its end of the bargain as it is atop the AL West. We still don’t think the Mariners have enough hitting to win their first pennant, however. They are +600 to do that and -295 to make the playoffs with no at +240.
Toronto has not held up its end of the bargain, though, as the Jays try to stay out of the AL East basement. The seat of embattled manager John Schneider gets hotter with every loss. The Jays are currently +290 to reach the postseason but this roster is too flawed. No is -360.
Seattle visited Rogers Centre from April 18-20 and lost the first game but then scored exactly eight runs each in the final two to capture the series. Catcher Cal Raleigh was 4-for-12 in the series with a homer, two runs scored and four RBI, while former Blue Jay Rowdy Tellez was 3-for-9 with three homers and seven knocked in. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit .400 in the series but didn’t have an RBI, while Bo Bichette was 5-for-14 with two knocked in.
The Blue Jays went 2-1 in Seattle last season; they hadn’t won a series there since 2018.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto avoided a sweep in Anaheim – which might have gotten Manager John Schneider fired – with an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday to snap a four-game skid. The Jays rallied from down four thanks to a four-run sixth. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 3-for-4 with two runs scored to extend his hitting streak to 10 games, in which Guerrero is batting .359. Chad Green earned his first save of the season one night after usual closer Jeff Hoffman blew a two-run lead in the ninth. Hoffman should be good to go tonight if needed after not pitching Thursday.
Right-hander Kevin Gausman makes his eighth start of the season for the Jays. Gausman (2-3, 3.83 ERA) is among the AL leaders in WHIP at 0.93. He has had a few shaky starts this year and a few dominant ones, and Gausman was dominant last Saturday vs. Cleveland with six shutout innings with a single hit and walk allowed each while whiffing nine. But the bullpen blew would should have been his victory in the top of the ninth. Gausman now has four quality starts on the year but is 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA in four road outings. In 11 career regular-season appearances vs. the Mariners (10 starts), he’s 1-4 despite a 2.77 ERA over 65.0 innings. Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh is 5-for-11 career off him with three solo homers, but M’s star Julio Rodriguez is only 3-for-14 off Gausman with five Ks. The over is 5-0 in Toronto’s past five.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle has been off since completing a six-game trip at 4-2 following a 6-5 win in Sacramento on Wednesday – it feels strange saying Sacramento in Major League Baseball. Leody Tavares started in right field after being claimed off waivers Tuesday in Texas and was 1-for-4. That’s how desperate the M’s are for offence that they are fishing on the waiver wire.
Right-hander Luis Castillo (3-2, 2.39 ERA) starts for Seattle tonight, and Blue Jays fans no doubt remember him well. In the 2022 Wild-Card Series in Toronto, Castillo started Game 1 and threw seven shutout innings on the way to a 4-0 victory. In his regular-season career against the Jays, the 32-year-old Castillo is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA over 27.2 innings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-for-16 with two doubles career off him. Alejandro Kirk is 4-for-8 with a homer. Castillo has been excellent at home this season with a 2-1 record, 1.57 ERA and opponents’ batting average of .171 in four outings. Seattle is 10-4 in its past 14 home games vs. Toronto.
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