Blue Jays vs. Indians: ALCS Game 1 Odds and Prediction

Entering the 2015 season, the Toronto Blue Jays had the longest playoff drought in Major League Baseball. Oh how things have changed! Now the Jays are in their second straight ALCS and are the most recent World Series winners (1993) of the remaining teams in the 2016 playoffs. Toronto opens the AL Championship Series in Cleveland on Friday night in the first-ever postseason game between the franchises. The Jays are series favourites on Sports Interaction MLB odds but underdogs for the Game 1.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians, Game 1

Moneylines: Indians -144, Blue Jays +134
Total: 8
Date: Friday, Oct. 14, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays enter on a six-game winning streak, and their pitching staff has allowed more than three runs just once in that stretch: the ALDS-clinching 7-6 10-inning win over Texas at Rogers Centre last Sunday.

With so much time off since finishing off the Rangers, Jays manager John Gibbons had his full assortment of starting pitchers available for Game 1 against the Indians. He chose All-Star right-hander Marco Estrada. He pitched the opener of the ALDS in Texas and was dominant, giving up one run and four hits with six strikeouts and nary a walk in 8.1 innings. The last of the Rangers’ hits off Estrada was Elvis Andrus’ leadoff triple in the ninth. Gibbons removed Estrada after Shin-Soo Choo’s RBI grounder ended the shutout bid. Estrada is 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in eight career postseason games, including four starts. He had four playoff relief appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Estrada was 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA during the regular season and 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 road starts. He pitched against Cleveland on July 2 at Rogers Centre and took a no-decision in allowing three runs and five hits over five innings with seven strikeouts. Rajai Davis and Carlos Santana homered off him.

Davis is 2-for-3 career off Estrada with a triple, that homer and two RBIs. Santana is 3-for-5 with the homer. Coco Crisp is 2-for-3 with a double and solo homer. Jason Kipnis is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. All-Star Francisco Lindor is 0-for-3. Estrada was actually tougher against left-handed hitters (.190, 11 HRs, 30 RBIs) than right-handers (.218, 12 HRs, 37 RBIs) this year.

Cleveland Indians

The Tribe also enter on a six-game winning streak. Toronto very much helped Cleveland by winning its final two games of the regular season in Boston, which gave the Indians home-field advantage over the Red Sox in the ALDS. Cleveland then surprisingly swept out baseball’s highest-scoring team.

The Jays’ Estrada couldn’t pitch in this year’s All-Star Game due to injury and his replacement on the active roster was Cleveland right-hander Corey Kluber, who gets the call on Friday. Kluber was the 2014 Cy Young winner, and he most likely finishes second in that voting this year behind Boston’s Rick Porcello as Kluber was 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA. The wins were third in the AL and the ERA fourth. He was also fourth in WHIP (1.06), fifth in innings pitched (215.0) and fifth in strikeouts (227). Kluber beat the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS with seven shutout innings, giving up three hits. His final regular-season outing had been scratched due to a mild quadriceps strain.

Kluber faced the Blue Jays twice during the season. On Aug. 21 in Cleveland, he took a no-decision in allowing two runs and six hits with eight strikeouts over 6.2 innings. He left with the bases loaded in the seventh and reliever Mike Clevinger struck out Edwin Encarnacion. On July 3 in Toronto, Kluber was shelled for five runs and seven hits over 3.1 innings in what would be a 17-1 loss for the Indians. Kluber hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in a start since and has lost just one decision.

Russell Martin is 2-for-10 career against Kluber with two homers and four RBIs. Josh Donaldson is 6-for-16 with a homer and five RBIs. Jose Bautista is 3-for-9 with a double and four runs knocked in. Encarnacion is 3-for-15 with three doubles and two RBIs. Michael Saunders is 3-for-8 with two doubles.

Blue Jays vs. Indians ALCS Game 1 Prediction

It’s going to be chilly in Cleveland with temperatures forecast around 8 °C on Friday night so that could help the pitchers. Kluber was good at home this year, going 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA and two complete games in 16 starts. Go under that total, and the Indians take Game 1.