Blue Jays vs. Dodgers: World Series Game 5 Betting Odds, Prediction
Los Angeles is -205 on the MLB World Series odds for tonight with a total of 8 runs.
World Series Game 5 Betting Analysis
Toronto pulled the 6-2 upset in Game 4 of the World Series on Tuesday night, beating Shohei Ohtani the pitcher and evening the series at 2-2. On the updated series line, the defending champion Dodgers are -190 favourites to repeat with the Blue Jays at +155 to win their first title in decades. That the series ends in six games is -120 and in seven +100. I still lean L.A. in six.
The winner of the fourth game of the World Series like Toronto has gone on to win the Fall Classic a total of 86 times or 71.7 per cent. That also has been the case three of the past four years and 16 of the previous 22. The winner of the fifth game of the World Series has gone on to win it 68 times or 68.7 per cent.
The Dodgers are 19-19 all-time in Game 5 of any playoff series and 8-12 in the World Series under the current best-of-7 format. The Blue Jays are 3-8 all-time in Game 5 of a playoff series and 0-2 in the Fall Classic.
There has been one interesting statistical note in this series thus far: No saves. It is the first time no saves have been logged by either club through the first four games of a World Series since 1977, when the Yankees defeated the Dodgers, 4-2. There were none in that entire series.
Toronto Blue Jays
Will George Springer play in Game 5? The former World Series MVP with Houston left Game 3 with right side discomfort and was unable to go in Game 4. If it’s an oblique injury, that takes several weeks so consider Springer very unlikely the rest of the way. Bo Bichette replaced Springer as Toronto’s designated hitter in Game 4, with left fielder Nathan Lukes leading off. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batted second and had the big blow, a two-run shot in the top of the third to give the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead they never relinquished. His seven homers are the most in a single post-season in franchise history, and he also passed Joe Carter and José Bautista for the most in career playoff history. Guerrero’s 14 RBI are also the most in a single playoffs for the Blue Jays, and he’s now the close +290 second-favourite for World Series MVP.
It’s rookie righty Trey Yesavage on the mound for Game 5, but with an off day on Thursday nearly everyone will be available. The 22-year-old took a no-decision in Game 1, allowing two runs over four and is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in four outings in these playoffs spanning 19.0 innings with 27 strikeouts (good) and 10 walks (bad). Yesavage hasn’t pitched on the road since Sept. 21.
Los Angeles Dodgers
There have been sparks here and there mainly by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, but the Dodgers offence really hasn’t been that great in these playoffs. They have mostly been winning with pitching. Just six total hits in Game 4 and one run scored for that lineup entering the ninth inning. Ohtani looked tired also pitching and was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. He’s still the -165 series favourite.
Lefty and two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell starts on the mound tonight. He had been utterly dominant in his first three starts of these playoffs in wins over Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Milwaukee with just two runs and six hits allowed and 28 strikeouts over 21 innings. But no team raked at home this season like the Blue Jays, and they beat Snell in Game 1 at Rogers Centre. He allowed a season-high-tying five runs and eight hits over five innings. Snell was a little wild with three walks, and the Jays batters did a good job extending at-bats and making him work. Daulton Varsho hit a two-run homer off him in the bottom of the second for a 2-2 tie. Then Toronto blew it open with that nine-run sixth. Snell started that inning and allowed a walk, hit and hit a batter and was pulled. All those runners were thus charged to him when the Los Angeles bullpen imploded. Snell was much better at home this regular season (5-1, 1.17 ERA in seven starts) than away (0-3, 4.30 in four starts).
TOR
LAD