Toronto Blue Jays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Odds, Prediction
The NL Central-contending Cardinals are slight favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
There may be no better baseball town in the United States than St. Louis as the Cardinals sell out nearly every night and usually are playoff contenders. The club reached the postseason each year from 2019-22 but has missed the past two. The Cards are currently in second in the NL Central, four games behind the rival Chicago Cubs, and sitting one game out of the final spot in the NL Wild-Card race.
To make the playoffs, they are +135 with no at -160. I tend to lean no because I don’t think they have the starting pitching behind ace righty Sonny Gray – the Jays will miss him. Young lefty Matthew Liberatore, 25, is having his best season but had to leave his last start early due “fatigue.” That sometimes can be a major red flag in terms of injury and Liberatore’s velocity was down, but manager Oliver Marmol said his concern level was “not high.” Outfielder Jordan Walker is currently on the IL. He once was a very touted prospect who had a strong rookie season in 2023 but has regressed in a big way since in part due to injuries. But Walker is still only 23.
The teams played a three-game set in Toronto last year and the Blue Jays swept it. They are 6-8 all-time as the road team in the series and last visited St. Louis in 2023, losing two of three.
Toronto Blue Jays
On Sunday, the Blue Jays lost 6-3 at Minnesota with a chance to sweep the series but still have won four series’ in a row and nine of 11 games overall. Toronto fell to 4-9 when struggling Bowden Francis (walked five Sunday) starts, so his time doing so might be finished doing so in the majors for a while. Righty Spencer Turnbull was recalled after the game from Buffalo to join the Blue Jays in a role to be determined, while Paxton Schultz was optioned to make room.
It’s Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.67 ERA) on the mound Monday. He took a no-decision last Wednesday vs. the Phillies, allowing one run and four hits over six innings. It was the veteran’s fourth straight quality start, but he personally has won just one of those due to poor run support. Berrios has made five career starts vs. St. Louis and is 3-0 with a 3.16 ERA in 31.1 innings. Brendan Donovan is 3-for-9 career off him with a double, while Willson Contreras is 2-for-4 with two doubles. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their past eight vs. the NL.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had a chance to complete an extremely impressive three-game home sweep of the LA Dodgers on Sunday but were beaten 7-3. Since May 4, St. Louis has the best winning percentage and most wins in the NL. Brendan Donovan has continued to emerge into one of the NL’s top second basemen and is batting a team-best .317. The bullpen has been good as the Cards are 32-1 in games they lead after seven innings – although closer Ryan Helsley has blown back-to-back saves.
Former reliever Andre Pallante (4-3, 4.91 ERA) starts on the mound tonight, and the 26-year-old is a full-time starter now. Pallante was strong early in the season but is fading and allowed a season-high seven runs last Tuesday vs. Kansas City. He has a 5.77 ERA over his past eight starts after 3.22 through his first four of 2025. Pallante doesn’t have a decision over four career appearances vs. the Jays with a 5.40 ERA in 6.2 innings. No Blue Jays batter has more than three official at-bats off him. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 1-for-3 with a homer. The Cards are 12-5 in their past 17 at home.
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