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Edgar Chaput
MLB Power rankings, World Series Odds: Baltimore Orioles A Cut Above the Rest
There are barely one and a half months remaining in the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season. How time flies. Playoff races abound, as do battles for divisional titles and home-field advantage. There is precious little time left for clubs to make something of their year yet many teams have fates that, as of the middle of August, are difficult to predict. Buckle your seat belts until late September!
Before we go any further, remember to check out our American League, National League, Interleague odds, and MLB props for all your baseball action.
Please note that all data is as of Tuesday, August 15 before game time.
With the preamble out of the way, let’s get down to business.
MLB Power Rankings, August 15, 2023
1. Baltimore Orioles (74-45, runline: 75-44)
You can’t stop them. You can only hope to contain them. The Baltimore Orioles remain perched on the highest branch of the Power Rankings tree. Losing two of the three at home to Houston last week was disappointing, but they’ve rattled off three straight wins since, including a breathtaking affair Sunday in Seattle. If the Cedric Mullins of the second half of the season is like the one we saw over the weekend, Baltimore is well equipped for a deep playoff run.
2. Texas Rangers (71-48m runline: 71-48)
Sill the bridesmaid after several weeks, the Texas Rangers shouldn’t feel too bad for themselves. They’re an excellent ball club and know that the real spurs will be earned in October, not August. Still, they could use Nathan Eovaldi at some point down the road. He hasn’t pitched since July 18 but is second in the majors with a 2.69 ERA.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (71-46, runline: 62-52)
The past few editions of this exercise suggested that the Dodgers were reverting to their former stature as a threat to anyone in their way. We now have confirmation. After months of decent but unspectacular baseball, the Dodgers are one of only five clubs with at least 70 wins. Freddie Freeman is playing out of his mind at bat with a .339 average, good for second in MLB.
4. Atlanta Braves (76-42, runline: 61-57)
Atlanta is too good to be ignored. To be fair they have cooled off a little bit with wins against the runline – they were four games over .500 two weeks and remain so as of this writing – but they sport the best record in baseball and are many pundits’ picks to lift the World Series trophy this autumn. So much is made of the club’s strong hitting, but how about starters Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton, each with an ERA of 3.75 or lower? If you can’t get four runs against the Braves, you’re probably cooked.
5. Cincinnati Reds (62-58, runline: 75-45)
To be perfectly clear, it’s the runline record that keeps the Reds in the top five. Mind you, it’s a wonderful record and there is a lot of money to be made with them. On the other hand, the good June and July vibes have dissipated. The excitement of Cincy maybe earning a playoff berth has been substituted for more question marks. If this year is indeed different, it has to start now.
6. Houston Astros (68-52, runline: 61-59)
The Astros jump up a little from ninth to sixth. Their win-loss record looks much nicer than back in May or June. Houston looks like it can yet again be a strong playoff contender. Unlike years past, the postseason road may be mostly as underdogs as it’s looking like Texas could hold on to that top spot in the AL West. Kyle Tucker is having a great year. He’s fourth in the majors with 88 RBIs.
7. Chicago Cubs (61-57, runline: 63-55)
The Chicago Cubs are hanging in there. As such, they deserve a nice bounce from 12 to seven. It isn’t a great overall record, but they’ve made significant strides from where they stood in the first months of the campaign. Taking two of three from the Blue Jays over the weekend helped too. Starter Justin Steele continues his excellent run with a 2.79 ERA, placing fourth in MLB.
8. Tampa Bay Rays (72-49, runline: 60-61)
Tampa Bay doesn’t move. Don’t get us wrong, the win-loss tally is terrific, more than good enough to get them into the playoffs. But those happy days of April and May are a distant memory, to say nothing of the current controversy surrounding shortstop Wander Franco. They also flat-out look like the second-best team when compared to the Orioles, an unthinkable notion in the spring.
9. Boston Red Sox (62-56, runline: 61-57)
The Red Sox, who were sixth a fortnight ago, are like the Cubs. Time will tell if they can make that extra push for a Wild Card spot, but they’re sticking around in the hunt, refusing to go down quietly. The bats are what keep the club interesting, as collectively they have the third-best average in MLB at .262. Masataka Yoshida (.300) isn’t slowing down.
10. Washington Nationals (53-66, runline: 65-54)
We’ve surely written this sentence before (it’s the eighth edition of the Power Rankings, give us a break), but Washington is a worse version of Cincinnati. The efforts in the win-loss column don’t impress much, but they’ll make people money on the runline, hence they preserve a place in the top ten. Right fielder Lane Thomas is having a solid campaign, hitting .284 with 68 RBIs and 20 HRs.
11. Seattle Mariners (63-55, runline: 60-58)
Seattle’s fine play over the past few weeks earns it a very nice jump from 17th to 11th, and it may have been even higher had they not fallen in two of three at home against Baltimore this past weekend. George Kirby is balling out there with 17 quality starts, placing him third among all MLB starters.
12. Milwaukee Brewers (65-54, runline: 53-66)
It’s a shame that the run line prevents us from putting the Milwaukee Brewers in the top ten. The truth is the club is playing sounder baseball lately. What once looked like a two-horse race in the NL Central between them and the Reds has morphed into Cincy and Chicago fighting for second place because the Brewers look like the best team in the division. Corbin Burnes is their ace, sporting a 9-6 record with a 3.60 ERA.
13. Toronto Blue Jays (66-54, runline: 56-64)
It feels as though this is what the Blue Jays have been all season long. About ten or a dozen games above .500 and a rather poor showing ATS. It’s a decent ball club but a variety of issues have resulted in them not showing the sort of oomph they did in 2021 and 2022. That doesn’t mean they won’t be a playoff team. They very well could be, but there is something a bit off about the 2023 edition of the Jays.
14. Arizona Diamondbacks (59-60, runline: 62-57)
The slot for the worst team with the best runline record goes to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 14th. It’s a shame because they were part of some exciting conversations just a couple of months ago, even getting former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons to praise them on an episode of Pitch Clock. Still, a decent tally against the runline keeps just barely in the top half of the rankings.
15. New York Yankees (60-59, 59-60)
What better team to award 15th place than the one that’s one game above .500 in the standings and one game under .500 ATS? It was amusing to include the Yankees in the conversation as one of the clubs sitting on the postseason bubble, but as of the middle of August things aren’t looking good. Even having Gerrit Cole (10-3, 2.76 ERA) doesn’t help anymore. New York has lost five of the last seven games he started.
16. Cleveland Guardians (57-62, runline: 61-58)
Following our own logic (don’t ask us to explain it), the bottom half of the rankings begins with the worst team that has still covered 60 spreads. For the longest time, the Cleveland Guardians had a shot at first place in the AL Central, but those hopes are beginning to fade. Hey, they can still tout Emmanuel Clase as one of the best closers in the game (31 saves). The problem is they don’t lead enough contests in the ninth inning.
17. Philadelphia Phillies (65-54, runline: 50-69)
The runline record is incredibly frustrating because Philadelphia has been very good lately. NL East division titles hopes are long dead, but a Wild Card spot is very much up for grabs. Fans will remember that the Phillies were World Series participants as a Wild Card team in 2022, so that’s not a bad way to get into the postseason. Second baseman Bryson Stott is making a name for himself with a .297 batting average and 47 RBIs.
18. San Francisco Giants (63-56, runline: 57-61)
Back down the ladder for the San Francisco Giants. They simply don’t look like a club that can be trusted down the stretch. The runline tally doesn’t inspire confidence either. That being said they are in a Wild Card spot. But can they hold on? They’re not a great hitting team (21st in batting average). Wilmer Flores (.300) gives them some pop, although he’s currently listed as day-to-day.
19. Minnesota Twins (62-58, runline: 55-65)
At some point, it becomes difficult to know what to do with certain teams in this exercise. Is it crazy to put a division leader in 19th? Yes, we fully admit that. But it’s the AL Central, a woefully mediocre quintet of sides that hardly inspires confidence. Credit where credit is due, however. Their entire pitching staff has the most strikeouts in the majors (1,146). Pablo Lopez leads with 180.
20. Miami Marlins (63-57, runline : 55-65)
This ranking feels dirty, but Miami doesn’t do well against the runline, so it’s hard mustering much enthusiasm about a club that for a while looked exciting but has lost its way in the past month. Sunday’s comeback win over the Yankees was incredible. It remains to be seen what momentum, if any, that might produce.
21. Detroit Tigers (53-65, runline : 60-57)
Yet another year goes by with the Detroit Tigers swimming through a swamp of mediocrity. It feels like forever since this franchise has been relevant in the baseball conversation. It says a lot when the hitter with the most RBIs on the roster, Spencer Torkelson with 68, is only averaging .228 at the plate.
22. St. Louis Cardinals (53-66, runline: 59-60)
Not only is the playoff-worthy 2022 season a distant memory, but so too are several players who were on the roster at the start of the season, many of whom are wearing Blue Jays colours these days. Still, even in the darkness, there is a glimmer. Third baseman Nolan Arenado is having himself a fine season, hitting .289 with 25 HRs and 84 RBIs.
23. Los Angeles Angels (59-61, runline: 56-64)
Things have gone kaput for the Angels. It’s as though the baseball gods had hoped for Shohei Ohtani to be traded and when club management said they’d keep their superstar, those deities ordained that the season would go to waste. What would possibly prevent him from wearing literally any other jersey in the spring of 2024?
24. Pittsburgh Pirates (53-66, runline: 58-61)
Another version of the Detroit Tigers. With all due respect to the difficulty level involved with building a winning ball club, no one has paid serious attention to the Pirates in years. Nobody on the rotation has an ERA below 4.27 (Mitch Keller). Unless a team hits the lights light, which Pittsburgh doesn’t, there’s no way they can find success with those pitching numbers.
25. San Diego Padres (56-63, runline: 57-62)
The San Diego Padres have let 2023 slip through their fingers. There was something to build on from what they accomplished last season, but nothing came to fruition. Of note, the club does rank fifth in total quality starts with 55 so far. Blake Snell has 12 and former Ranger Yu Darvish has 10.
26. Chicago White Sox (47-72, runline: 59-60)
It’s funny when looking at the leaderboard of the major statistical categories and spotting a club that struggles mightily in most but excels in one. The White Sox, drowning in a sea of defeats this season, have collectively performed the fourth-most strikeouts in MLB with 1,120. Then of course there is Luis Roberts Jr (.273, 32 HRs, 66 RBIs) a very good player probably wondering how much time he has left in Chicago.
27. Colorado Rockies (46-73, runline: 58-61)
In an unusually even keel season for many clubs, the Colorado Rockies have found a way to hit rock bottom, no pun intended. Even the team just above them in the NL West, the Padres, have a 22.1 per cent chance of making the postseason. Colorado? 0.1 per cent. Ryan McMahon leads the team in home runs with 19.
28. New York Mets (54-65, runline: 47-72)
Mets management is probably asking what’s the number of the licence plate that rocked them this summer. So much ambition in the spring, so much hope, all for naught. One bright spot is Pete Alonso. While it seems unlikely he’ll catch up with Matt Olson or Shohei Ohtani in the home run category, his 35 are good for third.
29. Oakland Athletics (33-86, runline: 57-62)
It’s been the same story for weeks. Either the A’s or the Royals are in last place. We award Oakland next-to-last place for the simple fact that they have a record against the runline that belies how truly awful the team is. Make no mistake about it, this is a terrible ball club, but they’re somehow on their way to covering at least 60 spreads this season, surely more.
30. Kansas City Royals (39-81, runline: 49-71)
Only two teams have not covered 50 spreads at this stage of the season. The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. To their very, very modest credit, New York has a better win-loss tally. The Royals are also one of two teams to have not won 40 games at the time of writing alongside the A’s, and the latter has a superior record against the runline. Sorry, Royals. We promise we’re not picking on you.