Tiger Favorite, But Where's the Value Bet in British Open?

The British Open returns to Royal Liverpool for only the second time in nearly fifty years – Ricky Rothstein makes his picks.

The last time the British Open was held at Hoylake, just outside Liverpool, Tiger Woods was at the height of his powers. Tiger dominated the hard-baked links on a hot weekend, using his driver only once and nearly breaking the course record in the process.

Eight years later, that performance is unlikely to repeat itself. Tiger is a joint favorite to win the Open at +1300 but if he does, the achievement will be up there with his greatest ever triumphs. Age is setting in and the putts aren’t dropping like they used to for the man who was, once, the Greatest Player The Game Has Ever Seen. The winner is more likely to come from the chasing pack.

Justin Rose is Tiger’s co-favorite and the other short-priced contenders are Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and this year’s US Open winner, Martin Kaymer. Kaymer is naturally on a high after his countrymen won their fourth Worth Cup at the weekend, while Adam Scott is No 1 in the world and a previous major winner.

Rory McIlroy is the most talented of the short-priced contenders but, while the talent is always there, the application isn’t as regular in its appearances. This was summed up by McIlroy’s performance at the Scottish Open in Royal Aberdeen last week – McIlroy shot a storming 64 on the first day and then nearly missed the cut on Friday with a horrendous 78. McIlroy could win the Open by five or eight strokes but he’ll never be a value golf bet at +1400.

In the light of recent British Open winners like Darren Clarke, Stewart Cink and Todd Hamilton, the temptation is to pick a longshot and hope for the best. But while links golf will always be quixotic, the weather is likely to provide a fairer test of skills this weekend at Hoylake than is often the case. The ground was rock-hard when Tiger won the Open in 2006, while Darren Clarke won his Open in a howling storm at Royal St George’s like something from a horror movie.

But there is no great wind forecast for Hoylake this weekend, and there will be enough rain to have the ball hold its position, rather than bouncing into who-knows-what while the player who hit it gets that sinking feeling in the pit of his stomach.

This means we’re looking at contenders from the second quartile of contenders – not so highly priced to need a miracle, but not so short-priced as to provide bad value for the bet if the golf gods aren’t feeling kind. With all this in mind, let’s go for:

• A small stake on Graeme McDowell at +2500 – used to links golf, consistent on tour, and a previous major winner.
• A small stake on Matt Kuchar at +3800 – Kooch has a swing suited to links and is, as they say, overdue a Major title.
• And finally, a small stake on Wales’s Jamie Donaldson at +6800, a rising star who may go nova this weekend.