117th US Open Golf Odds And Predictions

The second major championship of the 2016-17 PGA Tour golf season begins Thursday, and there’s plenty of mystery surrounding the 117th United States Open because no one knows what to expect from a new course that was built largely just to host this event. Here’s a look at the Sports Interaction favourites as well as odds on the Canadians in the field.

Woods and Mickelson Missing Event

This will be an interesting U.S. Open because it’s missing arguably the two biggest names in golf: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Tiger remains sidelined the rest of this season due to another back surgery. His last major championship was the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in California. That was in a playoff vs. Rocco Mediate. The U.S. Open is the only major championship to feature an 18-hole Monday playoff (Tiger’s went 19 holes).

Mickelson, meanwhile, wants this tournament more than any other because it would complete the career Grand Slam and he has finished second in the U.S. Open a record six times. However, Lefty has chosen to attend his daughter’s graduation ceremony in California on Thursday. He is scheduled to tee off at 3:20 p.m. ET on Thursday. Mickelson would need about a four-hour weather delay to make it on his private plane from California in time.

Erin Hills Weather Forecast

The forecast as of now at Erin Hills in Wisconsin, about 35 miles from Milwaukee, does call for morning thunderstorms. So it’s possible but not likely.

Erin Hills is the No. 1 story line this week as it hosts a PGA Tour event for the first time. The majority of U.S. Open courses are like last year’s host, Oakmont: very tight fairways, crazy-tough rough and nasty greens. The USGA likes to make the U.S. Open the toughest test in golf and a survival of the fittest. Erin Hills is like a British Open links-style course. The fairways are massive and it’s not typical American rough but fescue. It’s a monster in length at 7,693 yards (par 72), but balls on the fairway will roll forever so that doesn’t mean only big hitters will contend. The greens are going to be very challenging.

Whether the winner is just a few strokes or double digits under par likely will be determined by the wind. The last course to host the U.S. Open for the first time and which also had a similar layout was Chambers Bay outside Seattle in 2015. Rounds are going to take forever at this course.

US Open Player Odds

World No. 1 Dustin Johnson probably should have won two years ago. He had a 12-foot eagle putt on the 72nd hole to win and simply two-putting would have forced a playoff. DJ’s eagle putt slid three feet past and he missed that too, handing the tournament to Jordan Spieth. Johnson did rebound to win last year by three shots. He is the +667 golf betting favourite, with Spieth and Rory McIlroy at +1000. Johnson was on a three-tournament winning streak entering the Masters in April but slipped on some stairs at his rental home the day before the first round and was forced to withdraw. He hasn’t won since but does have three Top 15s in four tournaments since Augusta.

Spieth doesn’t have a Top 15 finish in a U.S. Open other than his victory. McIlroy won the Open in 2011 but missed the cut last year. He hasn’t played an event since the Players Championship due to aggravating a rib injury that sidelined him for several weeks early this year.

Jason Day (+1200), Justin Rose (+1800) and Rickie Fowler (+1900) are the other players below +2000. Reigning Masters champion Sergio Garcia is +2100.

Canadian Player Odds

Just two Canadians in the field of 156. Adam Hadwin is +10200 to win, +10000 to be the first-round leader, +1200 for a Top 10 finish and -455 to be the top Canadian. Ever since the end of the Florida Swing, in which Hadwin won in the Tampa Bay area and finished sixth in Orlando, he has struggled without a Top 25 in his past six tournaments. Hadwin last played at the Memorial in Ohio and missed the cut following rounds of 78-74. He missed the cut in the 2013 U.S. Open and was 39th in 2011.

The surprise Canadian in the field is 25-year-old Corey Conners, who is ranked 539th in the world. He’s +52600 to win, +6600 for a Top 10, +17500 to lead at the conclusion of Round 1 and +275 to finish better than Hadwin. Conners, from Listowel, Ont., won a sectional qualifying tournament in Ohio last week to gain entry to the U.S. Open. Conners is playing on the Web.com Tour this year and has two Top 10 finishes. He’s 32nd on the money list, with the Top 25 at the end of the season earning their PGA Tour cards. In all, 14 Web.com Tour pros earned a spot to the year’s second major through 36-hole sectional qualifying.

Conners’ last start on the PGA Tour was the 2016 Canadian Open, where he finished 80th. He did play in the 2015 Masters, courtesy of his second-place finish at the 2014 U.S. Amateur, but missed the cut at Augusta following rounds of 80-69.

U.S. Open Predictions

I can’t pick Johnson to win because it’s so rare to repeat at this tournament. The last to do so was Curtis Strange in 1989. I do like DJ at -125 for a Top 10. Ditto Spieth (+125) and Day (+125).

Since 2011, Day has two seconds and three other Top 10s in this tournament. He is my winning pick. Bet Alex Noren (+1800) as top European and Johnson (+333) as top American.