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Edgar Chaput
Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes Prediction: CFL Week 21 Point Spread, Odds
One wonders why a Grey Cup rematch was scheduled for the final week of the regular season. So often teams of this calibre have wrapped up a division title by now and don’t have much to play for. Such is the case for the host Alouettes. One thing is for sure, they’ll face a hungry Blue Bombers squad,who need a win to secure first place in the West Division.
Under those circumstances, our CFL odds have pegged Winnipeg as a considerable -7 favourite.
CFL Odds and Betting
The story of the recent history between Winnipeg and Montreal belies a critical detail. Their last 10 head-to-heads are all square at 5-5, but of course, the Als took the most important match of all, the 2023 Grey Cup. Week 21 concludes the season series between these sides, with Montreal taking the first game, 27-12.
Head coach Mike O’Shea has done a wonderful job adapting to new challenges in 2024. Winnipeg’s offence is nowhere near the level it once was (22.9 points per game, seventh in the CFL), but the defence is stonewalling everybody (19.5 points against per contest, best in the league). Furthermore, announcements of the Blue Bombers’ demise in July when they were 2-5 in the standings were greatly exaggerated.
As for Montreal, things have slowed down to a crawl recently. After storming out to a 10-1 tally, they’ve stumbled to a 2-3-1 record since. The once-vaunted attack now only scores 23.9 points a game (sixth-best). That said, they rank only behind Winnipeg defensively, conceding 20.6 points. The Alouettes would do well to rekindle some mojo even though the final score changes nothing about their set-in-stone role as hosts of the East Final.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Call it a quirk of the CFL having an uneven number of clubs, but the Bombers were on a bye in Week 20. They rested at home, as did the Saskatchewan Roughriders, the team chasing them for first place in the West.
When we last saw Winnipeg in action, it was at home to the Argonauts in Week 19, a game that started with fireworks and quickly mutated into a grind-it-out defensive slugfest. QB Zach Collaros had one of his better games this season by throwing for 249 yards even though he didn’t score a TD and was picked off once. It was a rare forgettable day for RB Brady Oliveira, who only tallied 64 yards (including a long of 26 on a single carry).
But as they have done numerous times in 2024, the Blue Bombers clamped down on defence. They limited Toronto to just over 300 total yards of offence. LB Tony Jones and DB Evan Holm had nine and eight tackles, respectively. The Argos only converted eight of 20 opportunities on second down. Alas, the defence needed the offence to accomplish just a little more, but it was not so. Winnipeg lost 14-11, making this Week 21 game the most important of the season.
Montreal Alouettes
We previously talked about the Alouettes needing to find some mojo as they have another bye after this week by virtue of hosting the East Division Final in a fortnight.
That could not be more evident given the performance they put in last week versus the BC Lions. To be fair, BC opted to start QB Vernon Adams Jr., who helped that club race out to a terrific start earlier this season. That, coupled with a Montreal defence that simply wasn’t up for the game, might have influenced the result. Even so, the 27-3 defeat was the worst outing of the entire campaign. Offensively, two red zone situations resulted in turnovers on downs, and defensively, BC receivers were wide open for three quarters, hence a 24-0 deficit by the time the final period commenced.
Cody Fajardo didn’t look great. Davis Alexander didn’t look great. The receiving corps was mostly MIA. Nobody looked great. All in all, it was a game to completely forget.
WPG
MTL