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Edgar Chaput
Alouettes vs. Argonauts Prediction: CFL Division Finals Point Spread, Odds
The setup is identical to 2022, when the Alouettes earned second place in the East Division and the Argonauts first. Montreal eliminated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at home in the East semi-final, before falling to the Argos 34-27 in a hard-fought battle. Here we go again. Rinse and repeat. The Alouettes were second in the East and took care of business at Percival Molson Stadium last Saturday in the semis versus the Ticats as Toronto lay in wait.
This is a different Toronto team though. They are the defending champions and even better than last season. As such, the CFL odds have them as considerable -10.5 favourites.
CFL Odds and Betting
Alouettes-Argonauts meetups typically favour the Ontario-based franchise. All in all, Montreal has won only one match over the past two seasons, regular season and playoffs combined. That’s a 1-6 tally. They often put up a decent fight, but it’s rarely enough.
The Alouettes finished the season with a respectable 10-7-1 record ATS and covered last week by defeating Hamilton in the playoffs 27-12. Even with a loss this Saturday they’ll have compiled a decent campaign regarding covers. The Als are a defensive-minded unit given that the over is only 8-11.
As for Toronto, this is a completely different beast. They had one of the best CFL regular seasons in league history, finishing 16-2. What’s more, they were one of the best bets in the CFL, going an incredible 13-5 ATS. That’s not an easy feat considering the number of times spreads were eight, nine, and even 10 points in their favour. Make no mistake about it, the Argos are a special club this season. The over went 10-8.
Montreal Alouettes
Can the fourth time be a charm? Head coach Jason Maas and his Montreal Alouettes certainly hope so. This Saturday’s East Final will be their fourth crack at the defending champion Argonauts. A 1-3 record against them would mean the world because the lone success would be in a playoff game.
Speaking of sweeps or avoiding them, that’s what the Als did to the Tiger-Cats at home in last week’s East semi-final. The relatively convincing 27-12 win completed a four-game sweeping of their Ontario rivals. One could argue they got a bit lucky insofar as they didn’t have to deal with Bo Levi Mitchell, who evidently was not ready enough to engage in a playoff battle. Montreal’s defence stuffed QB Matthew Shiltz’s offence all day long, limiting the damage to only 112 yards through the air.
Cody Fajardo’s Montreal playoff debut was good, not great. He went 15-for-23, 212 yards and 2 TDs, but threw one pick in a situation that otherwise would have made the final score much more lopsided. RB William Stanback had one of his better games, running for 95 yards on 15 touches. It was a tight defensive battle save for a beautiful bomb to Austin Mack just before halftime and a surprise TD very late by little-known James Tuck.
Toronto Argonauts
Does one dare say the Argonauts will be rusty after two weeks off and giving their stars a bit of rest even during some final regular season contests? It’s always possible, yet this Toronto side has defied the odds all season long. The fact they changed quarterbacks after winning it all in 2022 and are even better says a lot.
The Argonauts scored the second-most points this year with 591 – only three behind the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. They had the third-best defence and were one of only three clubs to concede fewer than 400 points through 18 matches. The icing on the cake is that they get to host this East Final after finishing the regular season a perfect 9-0 at BMO Field. QB Chad Kelly had a terrific year, and so did RB A.J. Ouellette. WR DaVaris Daniels compiled a 1,000-yard campaign, and DB Adarius Pickett was one of the few defensive players this year to reach the 100-tackles plateau (105). Two things could happen here. The Argos are indeed rusty, or they take their opponents for granted, but that hasn’t happened yet. They’ve been machine-like all year.